The Los Angeles Dodgers are 8-2 across their last 10 contests and are surging once again ahead of their next series. This road trip doesn’t have them traveling all that far as they head to Arizona for a set against the Diamondbacks, who are coming off three straight losses but remain competitive in the NL West. In this division rivalry, who will reign supreme?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers just took two-of-three games against the Phillies over the weekend, scoring 16 runs over the series. They’re now 38-21, still atop the NL West by a 5.5-game margin. Even better yet, a +129 run differential still leads the entire MLB by 20. Los Angeles’ scoring average of 5.32 is second best in baseball and an OPS of .792 as a team still paces the field. The full slash line comes out to .263/.345/.447, all three categories of which also lead the MLB. The team’s .183 ISO also ranks second among all clubs, while the Dodgers’ 83 homers are good for third. With an 0.52 BB/K ratio that sits third, the plate process is largely excellent as well. However, the Dodgers’ dominance isn’t limited only to the bats. The pitching staff is the best in the MLB, bringing a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a 17.4% K-BB%. The first two of those marks pace the Majors. The bullpen alone is also among the best in the business, racking up a 3.12 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP.
RHP Emmett Sheehan is the starter for L.A. tonight. He’s gone 3-1 across 10 starts so far with a 4.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 59 strikeouts. He’s generated a 97th-percentile chase rate and 89th-percentile whiff rate, so Sheehan’s stuff is certainly at its peak right now.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-Backs were just swept on the road by the Mariners in their last series, but they were absolutely on fire prior to that with 11 wins in their last 13 games. Now, they’re 31-27 and sit 6.5 games shy of first in the NL West but just one game back of the Padres for second. Arizona has a run differential of +6 and averages 4.55 runs per game this season. The club’s OPS is .704, 15th, with a .245/.310/.394 slash line and a .150 ISO. One weak point is that the Diamondbacks have just 49 homers, fourth fewest in the MLB, so the power bats could certainly use some improvement. However, they have an 0.40 BB/K ratio and the fifth-lowest K% in baseball at just 20.4%. Arizona’s pitching staff also hovers around average with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and an 11.3% K-BB%. The FIP has been outperformed a bit though. As for relievers, the numbers sit at a 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a 12.9% K-BB%.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start tonight for Arizona with a 5-1 record in 11 tries. He holds a 2.31 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 49 punchouts across 66.1 IP. He’s outperformed his xERA of 4.45 and has delivered some average-at-best underlying metrics for the most part, but he continues to perform well and has conceded only six earned runs in his last five starts.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -170 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight. The Diamondbacks come in with +140 odds to win outright. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-103)
It’s possible this pick ends up backfiring, but here’s one way to look at things. Sheehan has been solid this season, and although he allowed four earned runs in his lone game against the D-Backs to start the year, it doesn’t feel super likely that their offense explodes against him tonight. On the other side of things, Rodriguez feels like a statistical outlier based on his profile but just keeps on putting quality lines out there nearly every time he takes the mound. Regression could come for him against a great lineup, but he did hold L.A. to just four hits and no earned runs in his opener against them as well. With just two outings of more than three earned runs this year, he should limit damage. Factor in an elite bullpen behind him and it feels like even despite the Dodgers being super productive themselves, this game can still go under tonight’s run total.
