How does the Myles Garrett trade affect the Rams’ 2026 Super Bowl odds?

The Los Angeles Rams have found the logical extreme of their own philosophy. They won a Super Bowl after trading for Matthew Stafford during a Los Angeles-hosted championship season. Four years later, with Super Bowl LXI coming to SoFi Stadium, they are finalizing a deal for Myles Garrett. Los Angeles is sending Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-rounder and a 2029 third-rounder to Cleveland. This is the F— Them Picks spirit with the volume turned all the way back up.

The move also completes one of the most aggressive offseasons in recent NFL memory. The Rams already traded their original 2026 first-round pick, plus additional capital, for Trent McDuffie. They then used the No. 13 pick on Ty Simpson, building a succession bridge behind Matthew Stafford. Now, they have turned Verse and future picks into the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. At quarterback, edge rusher and cornerback, Los Angeles can make a serious top-five-player argument. Stafford is the reigning MVP. Garrett is the unanimous reigning DPOY. McDuffie is a two-time All-Pro.

Stafford is the largest winner today. He led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 passing touchdowns last season. He threw eight interceptions, posted a 109.2 passer rating and carried the league’s No. 1 scoring offense at 30.5 points per game. Los Angeles finished 12-5, generated 6,709 yards and produced 0.13 EPA per play with a 50.46% offensive success rate. The Rams then lost the NFC Championship Game despite Stafford throwing for 374 yards and three touchdowns while producing 479 total yards against Seattle. His offense had already generated a Super Bowl-level answer. Garrett gives Stafford a defense capable of ending one more drive.

DraftKings Sportsbook immediately responded throughout the Rams’ futures board.

Raw implied probabilities include sportsbook hold.

Below is my analysis of the trade and the market movement.

Los Angeles Rams/Myles Garrett trade odds shift analysis

Super Bowl odds: Rams move from +750 to +600

The Super Bowl number captures the size of the statement. Los Angeles did not need an offensive reconstruction. The Rams led the league in scoring, ranked second in offensive EPA per play and reached the conference championship game behind an MVP quarterback. Puka Nacua finished with 1,715 receiving yards. Davante Adams led the league in receiving touchdowns. Kyren Williams ran for 1,252 yards. Sean McVay already had enough points to carry a championship roster.

The missing element appeared in the final game. Seattle scored 31 points in the NFC Championship Game. Sam Darnold threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns. All three touchdown passes came under pressure. The Rams had a productive defense across the full season, allowing -0.06 EPA per play and a 41.60% opponent success rate. They finished with 47 sacks and allowed 20.4 points per game. Their pressure needed a more reliable finishing hand when January reduced every margin.

Verse deserves a serious accounting. He was a violent run defender, a legitimate young cornerstone and a difficult player to surrender. PFF credited him with 80 pressures in 2025. He finished with 58 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles and 7.5 official sacks. The problem lived in the conversion pattern. Verse recorded a sack in seven regular-season games and finished 10 without one. He went through two separate three-game sackless stretches. There were Sundays when the speed, power, and pressure remained visible, while the game-changing finish disappeared.

Garrett brings a harsher weekly tax. He has posted at least 10 sacks in eight consecutive seasons. He has earned first-team All-Pro honors in five of the past six years. His last two seasons produced 37 sacks. In 2025, he set the NFL single-season record with 23 sacks and unanimously won Defensive Player of the Year. PFF credited him with 84 pressures, a 24.6% pass-rush win rate and a 93.3 pass-rush grade. His 92.7 overall grade ranked first among qualified edge defenders. His 82.5 run-defense grade ranked third.

The attention he conquered matters as much as the final sack total. Next Gen Stats charted Garrett with 186 pass rushes involving a chip or double team, the most by any edge defender since at least 2018. He still produced a league-best 32 pressures and eight sacks against extra help. Los Angeles is acquiring a pass rusher who has already solved the protection plan designed to erase him.

That creates the frightening part for the rest of the NFC. Garrett is joining a front with useful, nasty interior bodies. Kobie Turner recorded seven sacks last season, and Los Angeles generated a 43.2% pressure rate with Turner on the field. That rate would have ranked first in the NFL. It fell to 27.2% with him off the field. Braden Fiske finished with three sacks after his larger rookie-year explosion, yet his get-off still gives offenses another penetrating interior threat. Poona Ford, the Rams’ 314-pound nose tackle, recorded 45 tackles and two sacks while helping transform the early-down run defense. Los Angeles allowed a 31.8% first-down rushing success rate, second-best in the league, after finishing second-worst in that statistic one year earlier.

Those are dogs beside Garrett. Turner already creates pressure from inside. Ford already keeps offenses behind schedule. Fiske already has the acceleration to punish redirected protection. Byron Young, who led the Rams with 12 sacks last season, now becomes the opposite-edge beneficiary. Every protection call aimed at Garrett presents an expensive answer somewhere else.

McDuffie makes the front more dangerous. The Rams acquired him from Kansas City after a four-year opening run featuring 246 tackles, 34 passes defensed, eight forced fumbles, 5.5 sacks and two All-Pro selections. He has started 10 postseason games. Coverage time turns pressure into sacks. Garrett shortens the quarterback’s clock, while McDuffie can erase the clean first answer.

This is why the +750 to +600 movement feels justified. Markets increased Los Angeles’ raw implied Super Bowl probability from 11.8% to 14.3%. That is a substantial swing for one defensive addition. Garrett qualifies because the Rams were already close enough for one destroyed series to change their season. Their offense can create leads. Their new defense can hunt inside those leads.

The risk remains real. Stafford is 38. Garrett enters his age-30 season after reaching an absurd statistical summit. Los Angeles has surrendered premium young talent and meaningful future capital. The market has also removed much of the forgiving price. Still, this is an undeniable print-the-Super-Bowl-tickets move from a franchise with a history of cashing its boldest idea.

Myles Garrett DPOY odds: +500 to +450

Garrett’s individual movement is surprisingly measured. His DPOY price moved from +500 to +450, increasing his raw implied probability from 16.7% to 18.2%. The market barely needed to learn anything new about Garrett’s personal ceiling. He had already produced the defining defensive season of 2025.

The Rams change his operating environment. Cleveland finished 5-12 despite Garrett breaking the sack record. The Browns never gave him an offense capable of forcing opponents into four-quarter pass volume. Los Angeles just led the NFL in points and passing touchdowns. A Stafford-led offense producing repeated second-half leads gives Garrett more third-and-long snaps, more empty protections and more desperate dropbacks.

That context matters for an award built around visible destruction. Garrett had five sacks against Drake Maye last season. He recorded at least half a sack in nine consecutive games. He still reached 23 while opponents sent the most extra blocking attention any edge defender has faced in the Next Gen Stats era. A season with 15-to-18 sacks on a Rams team pushing for the NFC’s top seed could become another overwhelming DPOY case.

The argument against the price begins with his own standard. Twenty-three sacks established an outrageous comparison point. A repeat award generally requires statistical control, team success and award-season narrative. Garrett now has the winning context and the national spotlight. His raw sack total may regress naturally after a record season.

At +450, DPOY remains the cleanest direct expression of this trade. A Super Bowl ticket asks the entire roster to remain healthy and win three postseason games. Garrett DPOY asks a historically dominant player to convert more favorable pass-rush situations into another awards case. The Rams have made that path considerably cleaner.

NFC winner odds: Rams move from +425 to +300

The conference adjustment is the clearest acknowledgment of roster quality. Los Angeles moved from a 19.0% raw implied chance to win the NFC to 25.0%. The Rams were already within four points of reaching the Super Bowl. Since then, they have added McDuffie to a secondary that needed a true coverage anchor and Garrett to a front that needed a reliable closer.

The player hierarchy is staggering. Stafford gives Los Angeles elite quarterback play. Garrett gives the Rams the league’s most accomplished active edge defender. McDuffie gives them a premier postseason-tested cornerback. Nacua and Adams remain the type of pass-catchers capable of owning single coverage when a playoff opponent cannot reach Stafford.

Ty Simpson now looks more coherent as the first-round selection that permitted the rest of this aggression. He threw for 3,567 yards with a 28-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Alabama last season. He completed 64.5% of his passes and finished as a Manning Award finalist. The Rams used a premium pick to secure their post-Stafford possibility. That freed future first-round capital for Garrett while the current championship window remains open.

Bottom line

Jared Verse is a painful price. He is young, explosive and already productive. Cleveland gains an excellent edge defender whose timeline fits a rebuild. Los Angeles made a different calculation. This roster has Stafford playing MVP football, Nacua in his receiving prime, Adams still producing touchdowns, McDuffie anchoring the secondary and a championship game loss still warm enough to dictate urgency.

Garrett changes the Rams’ defensive identity. He offers the titanic consistency Verse had yet to reach. He creates protection problems Turner, Fiske, Ford and Young can punish. He makes McDuffie’s coverage acquisition more dangerous. He gives Stafford the kind of defensive eraser that can turn a 374-yard playoff performance into a trip home for the other quarterback.

The Super Bowl move from +750 to +600 is the proper headline. Los Angeles has become the first team to pair the reigning MVP and reigning DPOY, then placed them in a Super Bowl chase ending at SoFi Stadium. The DPOY move from +500 to +450 is the cleaner individual futures angle because Garrett’s path becomes more direct inside this game script.

This is F— Them Picks, fully restored. This is the Ty Simpson choice gaining clarity. This is Matthew Stafford receiving the loudest possible vote of confidence. The Rams have made the kind of move that asks the market, the NFC and the defending conference champions to take them literally.