On the last day of May, Major League Baseball has a full Sunday of action throughout the afternoon, with three games just after 4:00 p.m. ET and Sunday Night Baseball to close out the day. The games in Sacramento, Seattle and Los Angeles complete those series in the later afternoon before the NL Central rivalry between the Cubs and Cardinals takes center stage for the evening. My colleague, Dan Johnson, focused on some home run props from the early games, and in this post, we’ll look at three home run props that make sense from the later matchups as May comes to a close this Sunday.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Make sure to check out the Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is back to $250,000 after Wade Meckler’s grand slam on Saturday. The promotion will continue throughout the day on Sunday, with the $250K rolling to Monday if no grand slams pay out on the final day of the month.
In this post, we’ll look at three of my favorite home run props from the late games on Sunday, including plays from Paul Goldschmidt, Randy Arozarena and Ivan Herrera.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Home Run (+393)
The Yankees are in Sacramento for the rubber game of their three-game set against the Athletics. They’ll take on lefty Jacob Lopez, who has struggled at home this season and been prone to giving up home runs. In his 11 games (48 2/3 innings), he has allowed 11 homers, including five homers in just 19 2/3 innings at Sutter Health Park.
In the homer-friendly environment and matchup, Goldschmidt will hit leadoff for the Yankees. The 38-year-old veteran is still a real threat against lefties, hitting .340 on that side of his splits this season. Four of his six homers have come against lefties, and four of his six homers have come on the road. Four of his six homers have also come in his last 16 games, while he has hit .321 with a .427 wOBA, a 43.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate.
Randy Arozarena 1+ Home Run (+511)
The Mariners homered four times in each of the first two games of their series against the Diamondbacks and will look to close out a sweep in Seattle by taking on Merrill Kelly. Kelly has served up eight homers in his eight starts this season, posting a 5-3 record but with a 5.25 ERA and a 7.19 xERA, which is based on the quality of contact he has allowed. Opponents have a 17.3% barrel rate and a 45.5% hard-hit rate against Kelly this year, and Arozarena has had success against Kelly in the past.
Arozarena is 4-for-8 with a homer in his past matchups against Kelly, and he delivered the walk-off single in Saturday night’s win in the 10th inning. Arozarena has hit .316 over his last 20 games with three homers, a .211 ISO and a .401 wOBA. He has a 10.5% barrel rate and 43.9% hard-hit rate over that timeframe and brings great value at these odds at over 5:1.
Ivan Herrera 1+ Home Run (+574)
Lefty Jordan Wicks gets the start for the Cubs in the Sunday Night Baseball matchup. Dan Johnson highlighted Jordan Walker in his picks from earlier today, who is another great option to consider. Herrera has slightly more favorable odds and has been in a great groove lately, and both the Birds’ righties are in good spots against Wicks.
Wicks is making his second start of the season, after allowing one home run and eight runs in Pittsburgh last Tuesday. He had an 0-2 record and a 4.44 ERA in his seven starts at Triple-A, giving up five homers in those outings. Throughout his MLB career, the 26-year-old has been homer-prone, allowing 17 homers in 99 1/3 innings (18 starts). Righties have hit 12 of those 17 homers with a .346 wOBA against him.
Herrera has seven dingers in his 56 games this season, with three of those coming in just 56 at-bats against lefties. He has a .214 ISO and .500 SLG on that side of his splits, along with a .409 wOBA. He has been heating up lately, smashing three homers in his last 10 games, with a 14.3% barrel rate over that timeframe, which is more than double his barrel rate from prior to his recent run of success.
Getting him at over 5:1 to go yard on Sunday Night Baseball is a great way to close out the weekend and the month with a nice win and potentially a hefty payout.
