The weekend is here, which means a jam-packed 15-game slate of MLB action is on deck. When scouring the market, nothing stands out quite like a home run prop. The odds might be high, but the payout is immense. Easier said than done? Sure, but all it takes is one swing of the bat. With weather heating up across the league, baseballs should be flying out of the park today.
Below are my three favorite picks from Saturday’s games to hit a home run.
Top MLB Home Run Props today
Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+322)
It’s been a team-wide effort this season for the Braves, owners of baseball’s best record. Few players on the roster embody this year’s squad better than Michael Harris II. The five-tool outfielder can do almost anything on the diamond. While defense is the 25-year-old’s biggest claim to fame, he’s swinging a hot bat this season. Through 55 games, he’s slashing .301/.333/.535 with 13 home runs and 36 RBIs. With protection across Atlanta’s loaded lineup, there’s no reason to expect a dip in production.
It’s not as if Harris is getting lucky with these swings either. He ranks inside the top 94th percentile in xSLG (.572), average exit velocity (93.4 MPH), barrel rate (16.2%) and hard-hit rate (56.1%). That’s bad news for tonight’s starter, Brady Singer. Cincinnati’s hurler has been terrible in 2026 (6.26 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). That’s due in large part to the long ball; Singer owns a dismal 2.7 home runs per nine innings ratio. Today’s game takes place at Great American Ballpark, a hitter’s paradise. With that in mind, the stars are aligning for Harris in this one.
Casey Schmitt to hit a home run (+436)
Backing a Giants hitter hasn’t been the most successful betting strategy. Regardless, a trip to Coors Field should serve as a notable exception. It helps that Casey Schmitt has been a bright spot on an otherwise lackluster San Francisco offense. This season, the infielder has jacked a team-leading 12 home runs. That’s in addition to stellar .289/.328/.551 splits at the plate. To make things more enticing, Schmitt comes into this one with momentum. He’s smacked four homers over his last eight outings coming into Saturday’s matchup.
As previously mentioned, a trip to Denver usually leads to plenty of hits. Per Savant, it’s easily the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball over the past three seasons. Colorado’s inability to roster a functional pitching staff has played a role as well. Tonight’s starter, Ryan Feltner, is no exception. The right-hander is on the hook for a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 20.0 innings this season. In addition, he’s responsible for a 2.3 HR/9 ratio. At better than four-to-one odds, Schmitt offers plenty of value this evening.
Luke Raley to hit a home run (+433)
Even with Cal Raleigh (oblique) sidelined, the Mariners aren’t lacking in impact bats. Still, on a Seattle squad with several big names, Luke Raley has emerged as a key piece. The 31-year-old is slashing .271/.327/.569 with 12 homers and 30 RBIs this season. As a left-hander, he’s also provided much-needed protection for righty batters Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez. Much like Schmitt, Raley comes into this one in a bit of a groove. He’s slugged two homers during his previous four games, including a solo shot on Friday.
The Diamondbacks will send one of their better arms to the mound tonight in Ryne Nelson. Despite a shaky month of April, the 28-year-old has gotten back on track recently. He’s allowed just nine earned runs over his last five outings (2.51 ERA). Still, the righty’s biggest weakness continues to be keeping the ball in the park (1.7 HR/9). Even during his recent five-game stretch, Nelson has coughed up five dingers. Raley is tied for fourth in the league with 12 homers against right-handed pitching. If any Seattle hitter is going yard tonight, it’s most likely to be him.
