Both the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty, armed with stars and experience, are expected to be in the playoff race this year. After seven games, both squads are below .500. In such a short season, the pressure builds early. Which one of these teams can alleviate that pressure and avoid some uncomfortable discussions?
Tipoff is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Liberty are 5.5-point home favorites with -225 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Mercury upset is priced at +185. The game total is set at O/U 171.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Mercury vs. Liberty game.
Mercury vs. Liberty Preview
This offseason was rough on the Phoenix Mercury. They lost Satou Sabally and had no available way to replace her. That left them with two aging stars, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, to hold the roster together. It seemed like those concerns were a tad overblown when they blew out the defending champion Aces 99-66 on opening night in a 2025 Finals rematch. Since then, things have gotten rough.
The Mercury have lost five of their last six, managing their only win against a rebuilding Sky team. The defense, usually the team’s crutch, has shown many cracks. They’re getting inconsistent offensive results. AT and Kah have been excellent, and Jovana Nogić has been a pleasant surprise, but things are slipping away from them. The depth is being exposed in a major way. If they can’t turn things around, general manager Nick U’Ren may have to consider the nuclear option.
New York has its own struggles, but those are largely beyond its control. Sabrina Ionescu missed the first five games of the season with a foot injury, throwing their offense into disarray. Satou Sabally, their big offseason acquisition who came over from the Mercury, has missed time as well. Thankfully, they have the depth to weather the storm. Marine Johannes, Pauline Astier, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton have all stepped up in the absence of two of their four All-Stars. It also helps to have two other All-Stars—Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart—who can set the tone on both ends of the floor.
Barring something unexpected, the Liberty will field a full squad on Wednesday. Ionescu and Sabally are listed as questionable, as is Laney-Hamilton, who is dealing with a personal issue. The Mercury, already short on depth, will be missing starter Sami Whitcomb. That doesn’t bode well for them.
Both teams have a two-way balance and are intimately familiar with one another. Who is going to come out the winner?
Mercury vs. Liberty Pick, Best Bet
I don’t want to dismiss Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper out of hand. But the depth of this team is all but gone, leaving very little for head coach Nate Tibbetts to work with. Presumably, the Liberty will be firing at full strength. That’s an overwhelming amount of two-way talent to deal with. They don’t have the defenders to cover all four Liberty All-Stars (granted, who does?), nor the role players to relieve pressure from AT and Kah. This is a tough, tough matchup for a team that may be heading towards the sunset this year.
