Well, the Western Conference Final hasn’t exactly played out as most NHL fans likely expected. The Vegas Golden Knights — who entered the Stanley Cup Playoffs as winners of a weak Pacific Division with fewer than 100 points — are now up three games to none over the Colorado Avalanche. It appears the Western Conference wagon is on the cusp of elimination, but will the Avs manage to survive another day in Vegas?
Here’s an Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4 prediction and pick for Tuesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights prediction, preview
A 3-0 advantage for Vegas heading into Game 4 was not on our bingo cards by any means. Colorado won the President’s Trophy, swept the Los Angeles Kings and then dispatched the Minnesota Wild in five games to start the postseason. None of that matters now.
There are explanations for how the Avalanche have collapsed through the first three games of this series. Cale Makar, perhaps the best defenseman in hockey, missed the first two games with an upper-body injury and has only five points in 10 playoff games. Nathan MacKinnon was hobbled in Game 3 with a lower-body issue after blocking a shot, taking just four shifts in the third period. Sometimes things simply come down to whoever the healthier team is.
It’s fairly difficult to even look at the underlying metrics and say the Golden Knights are the better team in this matchup. In 5v5 play, the Avs still hold an advantage in total chances (165-121), shots for (78-61), xGF (7.04-5.69) and high-danger chances (28-20). Much of the same goes for in 5v4 power plays, but maybe none of that matters because the series scoreboard is lopsided.
The scores of the three games thus far read 4-2, 3-1 and 5-3. Vegas has made comebacks and weather similar attempts from the opposing side. Five Golden Knights skaters have at least three points in these last three appearances. Carter Hart’s worst SV% in those games was .914 despite facing 31+ attempts in each, allowing only 2.0 goals per outing. The momentum has entirely shifted, and it doesn’t bode well for Colorado whatsoever.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -115 road favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Golden Knights come in as a -105 underdog at home. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 54% of straight bets on Vegas to win, 65% of wagers on the Knights to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 63% on the total’s under.
Perhaps the previous section made things sound a little too simple. Anything can happen in this sport, especially when the margins are razor thin and one big hit or tipped puck can swing a series. But with their two best players nursing injuries, there are real problems for the Avalanche. As such, someone else must step up. Martin Necas has 12 points in 12 playoff games but only one goal, the second time in as many playoffs he’s failed to put the puck in the net more than once. This could be his moment to shine, or Nazem Kadri’s, or numerous other players on this roster. With the superstars banged up, hope is grim. A win only delays the inevitable anyways; this team appears stunned and out of their depth.
In short, this is Vegas’ game for the taking. The Golden Knights are healthier and making the right play when it counts. In front of the home crowd, they should punch a ticket to the Stanley Cup Final.
