The Western Conference Finals are now a best-of-three series as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to defend home court against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The reigning champs haven’t exactly looked like themselves in the first four games of the series, and Chet Holmgren’s regression is a major part of that trend. Can he snap a cold spell tonight, or will his struggles continue against Victor Wembanyama?
Here are the top Chet Holmgren prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s Thunder vs. Spurs Game 5 in the Western Conference Finals.
Best Chet Holmgren prop bets
Chet Holmgren is the archetype of a rangy big man who can slide to the four or play the five spot. In the regular season, he posted a career-best 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting 55.7% from the field. He also pitched in 1.9 blocks a night with his 7-foot-1 frame, menacing opposing players who dared to drive to the basket. Over the first two rounds of the playoffs, he also averaged 18.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game over his eight appearances, shooting 60.0% overall and 38.7% from deep in the process with 3.2 combined stocks.
Things have changed over the course of this series, though. Holmgren’s production has slipped drastically to only 11.3 points and 6.0 rebounds a night. His shooting percentage of 46.9% in those four games is also very poor for a player of his height, though he’s also seen lower shot volume as a whole than usual as well. With tonight’s game particularly crucial to keeping Oklahoma City’s hopes of back-to-back titles alive, the big man will absolutely have to step up his game.
Tonight, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Holmgren’s prop bet lines at O/U 13.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 three pointers. His combined PTS + REB + AST line comes in at 22.5.
As mentioned above, it’s been a very rough series for the former No. 2 pick. Holmgren’s scoring average is paltry given his role with this team, producing outputs of just eight, 13, 14, and 10 points across his four appearances so far. He’s also been largely outmatched on the glass, bringing in totals of eight, four, three, and nine rebounds. These poor performances are nothing new for him against the Spurs, though. Holmgren has played against San Antonio eight times dating back to the start of the regular season and averages only 10.9 points with 7.0 rebounds across that full sample. His FG% over that span is a low 42.9%, while his 3P% sits at 26.3%.
Is the answer in tonight’s prop market to fade Holmgren’s production? In my opinion, the answer is an easy yes. In the scoring category, he’s stayed under 13.5 points in six of his last eight games against San Antonio, clearly struggling to compete with Wembanyama, who seems to take their matchups personally. Likewise, the under on 21.5 combined PTS + REB has cashed in six of these last eight games on the full season.
Personally, I lean towards the latter prop as the top prop bet for Holmgren tonight. Under 21.5 PTS + REB has cashed in all four games of this series thus far as well as five straight overall against the Spurs. With Wembanyama in the paint to contest shots and pull down rebounds himself, plus Isaiah Hartenstein around to crash the glass, I expect another quiet outing for Holmgren tonight.
