The Cubs arrive at PNC Park at 29-24, with the record still respectable and the current mood far messier. Chicago has dropped eight straight and 12 of 14, turning a Memorial Day divisional opener into a reset spot against a 27-26 Pirates club trying to stay attached to the NL Central and Wild Card picture. Pittsburgh already took two of three from the Cubs at Wrigley in April, and this is the first look at the matchup in Pittsburgh, where the afternoon forecast gives the bats low-70s weather, minimal rain risk and a light push toward right field. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Ben Brown gives Chicago the sharper starting-pitching card. He enters 1-2 with a 2.09 ERA, 40 strikeouts and only one HR allowed, and the contact sheet supports the run prevention: .227 wOBA allowed, .259 xwOBA, .255 wOBAcon, .305 xwOBAcon, 89.5 mph average exit velocity allowed, 38.6% hard-hit rate and a 4.0% barrel rate. Carmen Mlodzinski counters at 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 44 strikeouts, but his season has carried more traffic and louder contact. Opponents have produced a .322 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against him, with a 92.0 mph average exit velocity, 51.3% hard-hit rate, 35.5% sweet-spot rate, 13.4-degree average launch angle and 7.2% barrel rate. Brown can give the Cubs the cleaner first turn through the order; Mlodzinski gives Chicago the better path to baserunners and firm contact.
Chicago’s lineup is lighter than its best version, with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Michael Conforto, Pedro Ramírez, Moisés Ballesteros, Miguel Amaya and Dansby Swanson starting and no Seiya Suzuki or Nico Hoerner in the nine. That makes the top five crucial. Busch is the best matchup bat, bringing a .327 wOBA, .350 xwOBA, 43.7% hard-hit rate, 12.6% barrel rate and 15.0-degree launch angle into a right-hander allowing more than half his batted balls to be hit hard. The team trend is ugly but not completely dead: the Cubs had zero barrels on May 19, May 20 and May 23, then finally showed a pulse Sunday against Houston with two barrels, a 44.4% hard-hit rate, .398 xwOBA and .450 xSLG. Ramírez gives the bottom half a fresh speed-contact piece after arriving with a .312/.395/.547 Triple-A line, nine HR, 40 RBI and 19 steals in 43 games.
Pittsburgh’s offense has the better current heartbeat, and Brandon Lowe is the right center of the card. He enters with 13 HR, 32 RBI and an .898 OPS, and the underlying swing quality tracks with the box score: .393 wOBA, .376 xwOBA, 46.2% hard-hit rate and 12.9% barrel rate. Oneil Cruz gives Brown the loudest single-swing stress point on the field at 95.8 mph average exit velocity, 60.3% hard-hit rate, 16.9% barrel rate, .333 wOBA and .332 xwOBA. Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds give the top half on-base and contact structure, while Esmerlyn Valdez arrives in the lower third after homering Sunday for his first MLB hit. The Pirates just showed this shape in real time, beating Toronto 4-1 behind early homers from Horwitz and Cruz before Valdez’s two-run shot created separation.
Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet
The resistance comes from Brown’s actual quality, PNC’s run-suppressing shape and Chicago’s recent offensive freeze. Brown’s low-barrel profile can keep Pittsburgh’s left-handed thunder on the ground, and the Cubs have spent the past week turning playable innings into stranded traffic. Mlodzinski still leaves the door open. His 1.40 WHIP, 51.3% hard-hit rate and 92.0 mph EV allowed create enough contact risk for a Cubs lineup that does not need a full breakout to contribute three or four runs. His last start finished clean on the scoreboard—five scoreless innings in a 7-0 win at St. Louis—but Pittsburgh needed four relievers to finish the shutout, and the Pirates’ own offense backed him with 15 hits, including a Spencer Horwitz homer and a 4-for-5, three-run game from Konnor Griffin.
The market leaves the cleanest angle on the total. Chicago’s side is hard to trust during an eight-game slide, and Pittsburgh’s moneyline runs into the best starter in the matchup. Cubs team total over 4.5 leans too heavily on a cold, slightly thinned lineup, while Pirates team total over 3.5 has to clear Brown’s .259 xwOBA and 4.0% barrel profile. Full-game Over 8 (-114) gives the handicap more ways to cash: Cubs traffic against Mlodzinski, Pittsburgh’s Lowe/Cruz damage pocket, mild out-blowing weather and a late-game window after both starters leave their cleanest lane.
Best bet: Cubs-Pirates Over 8 (-114). Final score projection: Pirates 5, Cubs 4.
Best bet: Cubs vs. Pirates o8.0 total runs (-115)
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