For West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur, it all comes down to this. After they seemed doomed for relegation from the top flight for most of the season, the Hammers need a win against Leeds United and a Tottenham loss to Everton on the final day of the season in order to stay up. Any other combination of results — barring a 12-0 win and a Spurs draw — and West Ham will play next season in the Championship.
Every match in the final week will begin at 11 a.m. ET (4 p.m. local) on Sunday.
The Hammers are -130 favorites to take the pivotal three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Whites are +310. There are +310 odds that the teams will draw, which would end West Ham’s stay in the Premier League.
West Ham vs. Leeds prediction, pick
The Hammers’ plight looked dire for much of the season, as they had just three Premier League wins in the first 21 matches of the season. Then, they went on a hot streak, picking up six wins, three draws, and three losses over a 12-week span, and combined with a Tottenham slump, they seemed destined to stay up. But three losses later, West Ham is on the brink of its first demotion since 2010-11, when it bounced back at the first time of asking. Leeds, meanwhile, looked as if it would be in the relegation fight with the Hammers, but it is undefeated in the Premier League since March 3 and officially secured its safety on May 10. The Whites have nothing to play for now that they’ve been eliminated from European contention, but they managed to beat Brighton even with a slightly rotated squad last Sunday and shouldn’t be counted out.
The Hammers have dealt with some injuries, but that’s not the only reason they’ve been in the relegation scrap the entire season. They also haven’t had any standout players, as while five different players have at least five goals, none has more than eight, and they’ve missed the creativity and speed of Mohammed Kudus, whom they sold to Spurs in the summer. All in all, West Ham has had a poor attack, producing the fifth-fewest expected goals and fourth-fewest shots on target, and unlike Tottenham, it hasn’t been clinical enough with its opportunities to make up for that. The Hammers have also been sloppy with the ball, completing passes at the third-lowest rate. Without an outstanding attack, West Ham has needed to be defensively stout, but it hasn’t been, giving up the third-most expected goals, the second-most shots on target, and the seventh-highest shot-in-box percentage. The Hammers have also been poor against set pieces, allowing the most shots and second-most goals, as well as the most headed goals. Additionally, they don’t press much and haven’t been particularly good at producing high turnovers, and they rank second-to-last in goals minus expected goals because Mads Hermansen ranks fourth-to-last in save percentage.
Leeds, meanwhile, has had both depth and a standout star, as nine different players have found the back of the net multiple times and Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored a team-leading 14, with Noah Okafor contributing eight. Calvert-Lewin is in particularly hot form, having having scored in each of his last three games, and the Whites have no pressure to sit him, given that he was controversially left off of England’s World Cup squad. All in all, Leeds’ attacking numbers are a lot more impressive than West Ham’s; it has produced the 11th-most expected goals in the Premier League and attempted the 11th-most shots on target. Additionally, the Whites have been clinical from set pieces, producing the fifth-most expected goals in such situations. Leeds’ defense has also been better in virtually every phase of defense than the Hammers’, as it has conceded just the eighth-most expected goals and the eighth-fewest shots on target. The Whites have allowed fewer headed goals, as few fast break goals, and forced the fourth-most high turnovers ending in a shot while playing the offsides trap to perfection. Leeds has the advantange in between the sticks, as Karl Darlow leads the league in save percentage and had seven saves against the Seagulls in Matchweek 37.
This could come down to how many of the Whites’ starters end up playing, but West Ham has been bad for a reason. Leeds’ ability to play the offsides trap, combined with the Hammers’ relative reliance on direct attacks and fast breaks, is a bad combination for the hosts. Plus, while neither team has been very error-prone, West Ham has given up tons of set pieces, which should play right into the Whites’ game. When these teams played in October, it wasn’t all that close, as Leeds uncorked 13 shots to the Hammers’ nine, and the visitors have gotten much better since then. Even though the Whites have nothing to play for, no team wants to end its season on a loss, and I’ll back them to secure the point necessary to send the Hammers back to the Championship.
