Last season was a little bit of a respite, but the Atlanta Braves have returned to the top of the NL East with a vengeance. Winners of the division for six straight seasons between 2018 and 2023, the Braves missed the playoffs last season, but they have the best record in all of baseball through 52 games.
Atlanta kept pace with the AL’s Tampa Bay Rays by beating the Washington Nationals last night in the teams’ series opener, and it’ll have a chance to clinch the series this afternoon at 4:10 p.m. ET, when the middle game begins.
Jake Irvin is expected to start for the Nationals, and Grant Holmes will toe the rubber for the Braves.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves prediction, preview
Much like Atlanta, Washington has seen a huge season-over-season leap relative to 2025. Last season, the Nationals finished just 66-96, firing Dave Martinez and replacing him with Miguel Cairo in the middle of the season, but so far, under Blake Butera’s tutelage, they’re a solid 25-27, with nine wins in their last 16 games. Washington has made some especially big strides offensively, jumping from 24th in OPS last season to fourth so far this season, and it has several stat leaders: James Wood leads the National League in walks, runs, and plate appearances, while CJ Abrams paces all of baseball in RBI’s and Nasim Nuñez has stolen 22 bases despite only reaching base 50 times. The Nationals could start winning at a more consistent pace if they ever figure out their pitching; their bullpen has been the league’s fourth-worst this season and their rotation the third-worst. They lost last season’s “ace”, MacKenzie Gore, and Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell haven’t exactly been adequate replacements.
Meanwhile, the Braves have just been cooking all season. They’ve had just two losing streaks, and they’ve only lost one series all season, when the Seattle Mariners pipped two of three games off of them at the start of May. Atlanta has jumped from 13th to first in OPS, with Matt Olson leading the National League in doubles and total bases. Last season’s Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin ranks sixth in OPS, though Chadwick Tromp will have to start behind the plate this afternoon with Baldwin sidelined by an oblique injury. Additionally, the Braves have made significant strides to improve their pitching, as they rank in the top five in both starter and bullpen ERA this season. Most of that is the result of health, as Chris Sale and Spencer Strider both missed some time last season, and they should be even better once Spencer Schwellenbach eventually returns from the elbow fracture that ended his 2025 campaign early.
Even without Baldwin, Atlanta should stand a good chance of getting to Irvin, who hasn’t been able to get much consistency going this season. The veteran right-hander sports just a 5.79 ERA, and he’s given up at least two earned runs in all but one of his starts. His advanced profile doesn’t paint a much more positive picture; he ranks in just the 12th percentile in expected ERA, and the only Statcast category in which he’s been truly elite is extension, a function of his six-foot-six frame. Irvin’s ninth-percentile barrel rate could be a particularly major issue against a Braves lineup that has barreled at the league’s fifth-highest frequency. Additionally, one of Atlanta’s few weaknesses is its over-aggression at the plate (it ranks third in chase rate), but Irvin has really struggled to induce chases, so the Braves should be able to drive up the count. To be fair, the splits are in Irvin’s favor, though only slightly; he’s been a little bit better (even if more homer-prone) on the road in his career, and Atlanta has posted an OPS 34 points lower at home.
Holmes should have a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup. While he’s not an ace like Sale and Strider, he’s been reliable, pitching to a sub-4 ERA in each of his seasons and recording a 3.80 mark through nine starts so far this season. Additionally, he displays lots of game-to-game consistency, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts this season. His advanced numbers are decent, as he has a 42nd-percentile expected ERA. He’s not perfect, ranking below the league median in both walks and strikeouts, and his relatively high average exit velocity could be an issue against a team with a lot of power potential, but his ability to induce whiffs should make him a good matchup against Washington’s aggressive plate approach. Additionally, the splits should be in his favor; he’s been nearly 1.5 runs better at home throughout his career, and the Nationals’ offense has been somewhat less dangerous on the road.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves pick, best bet
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+114)
Last night’s game was only decided by one run, but both teams emptied their bullpens, so both managers might be incentivized to keep their starters in for longer. I simply trust Holmes more, especially given the high barrel rate that Irvin has allowed. The Braves also have much more bullpen depth.
Strong Lean: Matt Olson or Ronald Acuña Jr. – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+160)
Did I mention that Irvin gives up a lot of barrels? Acuña has only hit two homers this season, but I’d be remiss to bet against a player with 188 homers at just 28 years old, especially one with reverse splits. Olson, meanwhile, has posted an OPS north of .900 against righties. Irvin throws mostly four-seamers to lefties and sinkers to righties; Olson has an .875 expected slugging percentage against righty four-seamers and Acuña a .576 mark against righty sinkers.
