For the New York Knicks, it’s so close they can almost taste it. After a highly improbable fourth-quarter comeback in Game 1 and a dominant third-quarter run in Game 2, the Knicks have a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, tantalizingly close to their first Finals appearance since 1999.
Still, a series doesn’t truly begin until the road team wins a game, and so far, New York has merely protected home-court advantage. That could change tonight, when Game 3 begins at 8:10 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, but the Cavaliers could also get themselves back into the series with a win.
The betting odds back Cleveland to do just that; it is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 214.5. The Knicks are +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die game for the hosts and offer a prediction.
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers preview, prediction
In a true indication of its depth, New York has had a different hero in both games. In Game 1, Jalen Brunson went on a signature run in the fourth quarter, scoring 15 of his 39 points, and OG Anunoby chipped in with nine in overtime. Brunson was more muted in Game 2, scoring just 19 points, but Josh Hart stepped up, scoring 26 points and tying a playoff career high with five made three-pointers. The Knicks have also gotten plenty of contributions from their bench, with Landry Shamet stepping up late in Game 1 and Miles McBride making an impact on the boards in Game 2 even though his jumper wasn’t falling.
The Cavaliers simply haven’t been consistent enough around Donovan Mitchell, especially in Game 1, when James Harden struggled mightily. While Mitchell’s jumper hasn’t fallen consistently, the tenacity he’s displayed on drives has allowed him to put up relatively efficient scoring numbers, and he got to the free throw line nine times in Game 2. Additionally, one of Cleveland’s two big men has recorded a double-double in each game, with Evan Mobley recording 15 points and 14 rebounds in Game 1 and Jarrett Allen finishing with 13 points and 10 boards in Game 2. The Cavaliers got virtually nothing from their bench in Game 2, but Sam Merrill had 12 points in Game 1.
Knicks at Cavaliers pick, best bet
New York fans’ frustration with their team lasted for merely three and a half quarters in Game 1 before the team turned into the historic juggernaut that it has been all postseason. This season’s Knicks have the best net rating of any playoff run, and over their nine-game winning streak, they have a plus-24.3 net rating, more than twice as strong as that of the next-best team across that same span. For the playoffs as a whole, New York has had a net rating more than 18 points per 100 possessions better than Cleveland’s at home despite the Cavaliers going 6-1 at Rocket Arena, so home court advantage alone won’t be enough for Cleveland, which will have to play better and hope the Knicks play significantly worse than usual. The Cavaliers did win their sole home game against New York during the regular season, thanks to inefficient scoring from Brunson and Anunoby.
The key for Cleveland will be to stop the Knicks from living in the interior. So far these playoffs, New York has attempted 30.1 restricted-area attempts per game, the most in the league, and so far this series, that hasn’t changed much. This series, the Knicks have tried nine more layups than the Cavaliers have and made 10 more, a not-insignificant margin given how competitive Game 1 was. That’s an advantage that should be consistent, given that New York was a better rim-protecting team during the regular season as well. If anything, that edge could even grow, given that Mitchell has been more than 10 percentage points more efficient at the rim so far this series than he was during the regular season, though Brunson could be due for some finishing regression, as well.
The teams have split the rebounding battle so far, as the Knicks snagged more boards in Game 1 and Cleveland in Game 2. In particular, the Cavaliers have been dominant on the offensive glass despite Mitchell Robinson snagging four in just 14 minutes in Game 1, and if they can maintain that edge over New York — which has been the league’s best rebounding team throughout these playoffs — that could be the key to getting back in the series. Ball security will also be paramount; Cleveland has been the league’s most turnover-prone team these playoffs, and it coughed up two more giveaways than the Knicks in Game 1 before each team allowed an equal amount in Game 2. The Cavaliers have also done an excellent job getting Towns and McBride into foul trouble, but they’ve been indisciplined themselves, with both Mitchell and Max Strus each picking up at least five fouls in both games.
Cleveland has relied heavily on its perimeter shooting, especially in Game 1, when it attempted 50 three-pointers, but even out-shooting New York from deep wasn’t good enough. The Cavaliers couldn’t buy a bucket in Game 2, shooting just three-for-14 from deep in the second half, but the Knicks’ defensive adjustments mattered, as after giving up 24 wide-open threes in Game 1, New York allowed 19 in Game 2, including just seven in the second half. Given that New York has had the better offense all playoffs despite Cleveland’s consistently generating more wide-open threes and allowing fewer, that trend could be a massive issue in Game 2. The Cavaliers are more due to benefit from shooting luck normalization, but they’ll need a healthier shot diet.
Even considering home court advantage and possible shooting variance, it’s just hard to bet against the Knicks in their current form, especially at plus-money. Cleveland hasn’t played badly in the first two games, competing hard with New York on the glass, not losing the turnover battle by much, and drawing more fouls, and it’s still down 2-0. Karl-Anthony Towns is trending in the right direction after a brutal Game 1. The Knicks simply have too many counters, and Harden is too much of a target as an isolation defender. New York should extend its lead to 3-0 tonight.
