At the start of the season, neither Chelsea nor Sunderland fans likely would’ve expected to be staring down what could be a play-in game for a European place in the final week of the season. Blues fans would’ve hoped for Champions League qualification, and Black Cats fans probably expected a relegation scrap.
Instead, through 37 matches, Chelsea sits eighth in the table on 52 points, ahead of Brentford on goal difference, while Sunderland sits 10th on 51 points. Eighth place will qualify for the Europa Conference League, a competition that the Blues won in 2025. Chelsea would secure at least the Europa Conference League with a win at the Stadium of Light, though it could make the Europa League if Brighton drops points against Manchester United. The Black Cats should also expect to qualify for the Conference League if they pick up all three points, though a Bees win over Liverpool could render their efforts useless. They can make the Europa League if the Seagulls lose and Brentford doesn’t win.
Like every match in the final week, it will begin at 11 a.m. ET (4 p.m. local) on Sunday.
The Blues are +100 favorites to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Sunderland is +255. There are +260 odds that the teams will draw, which would keep both teams out of Europe if the Bees beat the Reds.
Chelsea vs. Sunderland prediction, pick
Chelsea looked to be in strong position to qualify for Europe for most of the season, but it suffered a horrific losing streak in March and April under Liam Rosenior to put its qualification at risk. In the span of eight matches, the Blues were knocked out of the Champions League rather handily to Paris Saint-Germain and lost five consecutive Premier League matches, getting shut out in all five. Tuesday’s win over relegation-threatened Tottenham was their first in the league since March 4. The Black Cats, meanwhile, have been less consistent on a match-to-match basis, but they’re coming off of draws with Wolves and Manchester United and a win over Everton. Sunderland has had plenty of impressive results this season, including a draw against Manchester City and, notably, a 2-1 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in October.
On paper, the Blues have the better side. Despite his snub from the Brazilian national team, João Pedro is a more clinical goal scorer than anyone on the Black Cats’ roster, and Chelsea’s midfield trio of Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernández, and Moisés Caicedo is one of the best in the world, with Fernández scoring a banger to open the scoring against Spurs. On paper, the difference in attacks isn’t even close, as only Man City has managed more expected goals than the Blues have, and they’ve taken the third-highest quality shots. Chelsea has also been clinical in possession, ranking second in pass completion percentage, but it hasn’t been able to finish, ranking second-to-last in goals minus expected goals. Defensively, the Blues have been a middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking eighth in expected goals allowed, though they’ve been one of just six teams to win a majority of both ground and aerial duels. Additionally, they’ve allowed the third-fewest touches in the box and the eighth-fewest fast break goals while forcing the second-most high turnovers ending in a shot. However, Chelsea has also been very gettable from set pieces, allowing the second-most goals in such situations, as it has been pretty indisciplined, committing the fifth-most fouls and earning a league-high seven red cards. Furthermore, Robert Sánchez ranks just 15th among 22 qualified shot-stoppers in save percentage.
Sunderland, meanwhile, hasn’t had a standout attacking talent like Pedro, but it does have depth. Eight different players have found the back of the net at least twice for the Black Cats, but only Brian Brobbey (seven goals), Wilson Isidor (six), and Enzo Le Fée (five) have scored five times, and only Le Fée and captain Granit Xhaka have more than three assists. Despite the well-rounded effort, the underlying numbers don’t suggest that Sunderland’s attack is very good, as it ranks third-to-last in the Premier League in expected goals, third-to-last in shots on target, and fifth-to-last in pass completion percentage. Defensively, the Black Cats’ stats aren’t very impressive, either; they’ve allowed the seventh-most expected goals and the fourth-most shots on target, though the fact that they’ve limited opponents to the third-lowest shot-in-box percentage has helped. Sunderland has also allowed among the most goals from both headers and fast breaks while winning a minority of aerial duels. In clutch situations, though, few have done it better than the Black Cats; they’ve forced the ninth-most high turnovers ending in a shot and conceded the sixth-fewest expected goals from set pieces. Goalkeeper Robin Roefs has quickly become one of the top goalkeepers in the Premier League, ranking sixth in save percentage, and he could feature for the Netherlands at this summer’s World Cup. With Roefs in top form, Sunderland has a defense no team wants to face.
Ultimately, the Blues’ lack of an elite finisher and Roefs’ tremendous goalkeeping should keep the scoreline low, as Chelsea’s deliberate play style and the Black Cats’ infrequent pressing should elongate possessions. Additionally, Sunderland’s inability to take advantage of set pieces makes it a bad bet to take advantage of the Blues’ weaknesses in such situations. It all depends on whether the Black Cats’ counter-attacks are enough to break Chelsea’s press and whether they can finish at a level high enough to take advantage of the high-quality shot opportunities the Blues allow. Otherwise, Chelsea should be able to generate shots at enough volume to navigate past Roefs once.
