Finally, there are no remaining winless teams and no remaining undefeated teams in the WNBA. After picking up an 80-78 victory over the Seattle Storm on Wednesday, the Connecticut Sun finally got their final season off the starting blocks.
Tonight, the Storm will get a chance to take revenge when they host the Sun for a rematch at 10 p.m. ET. Seattle is just a half-game better than Connecticut, having only picked up one win in five games.
The Storm are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 Moneyline), with the total set at 165.5 points. The Sun are +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this cellar-dwelling battle and offer a prediction.
Sun at Storm prediction, pick
Entering their final season in Connecticut before relocating to become the Houston Comets next season, the Sun were expected to be bad, as they finished just 11-33 last season. That’s exactly what they’ve been; before picking up their win, they’d lost two games by at least 29 points, and they hold bottom-three ranks in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating. On the other hand, Seattle expected to be competitive after finishing 23-21 last season, but Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike, and Brittany Sykes all exited, and both Dominique Malonga and Ezi Magbegor suffered injuries, robbing the Storm of their interior depth. As a result, Seattle ranks second-to-last in offensive rating and just eighth in defensive rating, and three of its four defeats have come by double-digit points.
Connecticut has particularly struggled with protecting the rim, in part because starting center Brittney Griner has missed three of the six games with a rib injury, but at 35 years old, Griner is well past her prime. The Sun have done a decent job stopping opponents from getting to the restricted area in the first place, but once there, they’ve allowed the second-highest percentage, while the Storm have held opponents to the fourth-lowest mark, even with Magbegor not suiting up at all and Malonga only playing three games. Seattle’s solid paint defense should make it a good matchup, given that Connecticut relies heavily on its paint play, but the Storm’s relative inability to get downhill means they aren’t as well-suited to take advantage of the Sun’s poor rim protection.
Connecticut should have the advantage on the glass, given Seattle’s injury concerns and the fact that Griner is expected to play. The Sun have snagged exactly half of all available boards so far this season, while the Storm have grabbed them at the second-lowest rate. Additionally, Connecticut has been better in transition, ranking third in points off of turnovers while Seattle ranks third-to-last, and both teams have been pretty sloppy with the ball. The issue for the Sun is that they’ve been indisciplined, and the Storm have been better-than-average at drawing fouls. All but one of Connecticut’s rotation players has averaged at least two fouls per game, so establishing consistent lineups has been a challenge.
While neither team has attempted many threes or converted them at a very high rate, Seattle has been slightly better from the perimeter on offense. However, the Sun have been better at guarding the three-point line, allowing the third-fewest attempts per game. I’d bank on the Storm’s shooting being more sustainable than Connecticut’s, though; Natisha Heideman, who leads the team in attempts per game, is a career 37.4% three-point shooter who’s converted at just a 29.2% clip this season, and while the Sun’s Kennedy Burke is due for somewhat of a bounce-back, neither Aneesah Morrow nor Diamond Miller has ever shown much promise as a shooter.
Ultimately, neither of these teams is very good, but Connecticut’s advantages on the boards and in transition, combined with its tenacity on drives, could be enough for a second straight win. At plus-money, I’m willing to take the chance. The Sun won on Wednesday despite shooting just 25% from deep, in part because they dominated the boards without Malonga. With the Cameroonian out once again, I’m not sure Seattle has an adequate solution.
