American League East rivals wrap a four-game series Thursday night, as the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees (30–20, 2nd AL East) took the first two games before dropping Wednesday’s rain-delayed contest by a score of 2–1. The Blue Jays (22–27, 3rd AL East) will attempt to split the series to pack some momentum for the trip back up north.
Looking at the pitching probables, right-hander Braydon Fisher (3.08 ERA) will take the hill as an opener for Toronto, with righty Spencer Miles (2.55 ERA) expected to handle bulk duties. They’ll face New York southpaw Carlos Rodon (0–1, 5.63 ERA).
First pitch is tabbed for 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -149 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays are +123 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U eight runs.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Preview
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are a far cry from last year’s pennant-capturing dynamo. Wednesday’s win stemmed largely from a six-inning shutout hurled by budding ace Trey Yesavage, while Toronto’s offense continued to stall. This season, the injury-ravaged lineup ranks 25th in MLB in wRC+ and owns the lowest wOBA and xwOBA in the American League.
Toronto looks to split the series by leaning on its excruciatingly unlucky bullpen, which sits 28th in BABIP and 7th in xERA this season. Righty Braydon Fisher will serve as an opener, fresh off tossing 1.2 scoreless frames against New York on Monday. Handling bulk duties is Spencer Miles, who owns a 2.55 ERA (3.26 xERA) and has done an exceptional job of skirting hard contact this year. The right-handed rookie recently tossed 3.2 shutout frames with five strikeouts against the Tigers in Detroit.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have emerged as a clear favorite to win the American League this year, leading the pack in wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, ERA, xERA, and the like. New York not only boasts two MVP candidates — but also a pair of Cy Young contenders.
Still, cracks are beginning to show. The Bombers are a mediocre 10–9 since the calendar flipped to May, and they’ve hovered around the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. A recurring theme throughout the past few years, New York’s offense is vulnerable when it isn’t mashing homers; it’s not right now.
It also hasn’t helped that, over the last 14 days, Yankee starters — one of the strongest units in MLB — are second-to-last in left-on-base percentage, posting a paltry 65% strand rate. They’ll need better from All-Star lefty Carlos Rodon, who has struggled since returning from injury. Across his first two starts (8.0 IP), Rodon is responsible for a 5.63 ERA (4.18 xERA) with a 1.63 WHIP and a bloated 21.1% walk rate.
It’s also worth noting that Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a video-game-esque 11-for-18 (.611) with a 1.807 OPS, two home runs, three doubles, seven RBIs, and five walks in his career against the southpaw fireballer.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pick, Best Bet
Every game in this series has been decided by one run. While the Yankees are a far more complete team on paper, they’ve run into some turbulence recently and on Thursday will deploy an unpredictable starter who has historically struggled against Toronto. The Blue Jays should keep this one close and potentially pull off a series split on the road against their division rival.
