The series between Central Division buzzsaws continues tonight as the venue shifts to the State of Hockey. The Minnesota Wild are down two games to none as they now host the Colorado Avalanche and try to keep their season from slipping out of hand at 9 p.m. ET. After a couple of lopsided matchups to start the series, will things play out differently on the ice in tonight’s edition of the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Here’s a Avalanche vs. Wild Game 3 prediction and pick for Saturday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Avalanche vs. Wild Game 3 prediction, preview
Game 1 ended in a ridiculous 9-6 final favoring the Avs, which they promptly followed up with a 5-2 victory in Game 2 to take firm hold of this series. Despite the venue shift, it’s beginning to feel like they’ll cruise to another easy win tonight and potentially even sweep the Wild in four games. Could we really see that happen?
It feels wrong to suggest that such an outcome could be in the cards, especially given how good Minnesota has been this year ever since adding Quinn Hughes to the roster. While the Wild did look great in round one, the Avalanche are an entirely different beast with a far different style than the Dallas Stars had. Unlike that opening-round opponent, Colorado brings elite speed and plenty of breakaways to the table along with elite offensive talent up and down the forward lines; that speed has proven much more difficult for Minny to match up with.
What’s interesting here is that these teams are pretty even in 5v5 play according to the statistics, though. The Avalanche have the lead in 5v5 goals (nine to seven), xGF (4.48 to 4.23), and high-danger chances (21 to 18), though the Wild have netted four of their goals on high-danger looks to just one converted chance for the Avs. Minnesota has the edge on the power play in terms of the deeper numbers such as xGF (2.72 to 2.38) and high-danger chances (eight to six), but hasn’t converted for a single goal on the man advantage. Instead, Colorado has three goals in 5v4 power plays — two off high-danger opportunities — as the Wild’s penalty kill continues to struggle at an abysmal 59.4%. After garnering a 79.8% PK% in the regular season, that collapse from the Minnesota kill unit may prove fatal in this series.
Avalanche vs. Wild Game 3 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -130 road favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight, while the Wild come in with +110 odds on home ice. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 70% of straight bets on Colorado to win, 58% of wagers on the Avs to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 70% on the total’s over.
The venue change to Minnesota does make me feel a little bit better about the Wild tonight, as does the return of Jesper Wallstedt in the net (.903 SV%, 2.81 GAA). The pressure is also mounting for this team as they try to avoid going down 3-0, so I expect desperation to set in as well. However, sometimes that desperation can lead a unit to make sloppy mistakes, and we know just how costly penalties can be when your PK can’t get stops. I do believe this will be a closer game than we’ve seen over the last two matchups, but I still believe the Avalanche are the better team with the superior goalie in Scott Wedgewood (.923 SV%, 2.12 GAA). Nathan MacKinnon is borderline unstoppable and there’s more firepower behind him than the Wild possess, especially with Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin both still sidelined for Minnesota. Watch for Colorado to take command.
