The puck dropped on the second-round series between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres earlier this week, with the opening matchup ending 4-2 in favor of the Sabres. The victors weren’t truly challenged in that outing as they took an early lead and held on, and after their power play finally woke up, there were plenty of encouraging signs for the remainder of the best-of-seven. Tonight, the Habs try to battle back and even the tally at 7 p.m. ET.
Here’s a Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 2 prediction and pick for Friday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 2 prediction, preview
Game 1 of this series was, well, something of a weird one. For starters, Buffalo logged just 16 shots on goal, 12 fewer than Montreal’s 28. The way that the Sabres’ volume was shut down fell largely in mine with what the Habs’ defense showed in round one, mostly limiting shots well against an excellent offense. You’d think that given the disparity in pucks put on net as well as the fact Buffalo had 15 giveaways to the Canadiens’ seven would result in a win for Montreal, right? Think again. The Sabres tallied four goals despite the low volume and ended up winning thanks to two factors — shot quality and the power play.
There wasn’t a massive gap in the number of high-danger chances for either team in Game 1, which saw Buffalo record 10 to Montreal’s seven in 5v5. Moreover, each team recorded just two high-danger chances in 5v4 power plays. The interesting part here is that the Sabres’ know those better looks will be the key to beating Jakub Dobes in net. The rookie ranks eighth in high-danger unblocked SV% at .762 among 18 postseason goalies with at least two games played. Compare that to Alex Lyon, who’s at an unreal .909 against similar shots, and there’s a clear chasm between these netminders. The other key here is that the Sabres’ power play was bound to experience some positive regression at some point after recording an abysmal 4.2% PP% in the first round. With two goals on the man advantage in Game 1, perhaps Buffalo has finally found its form on special teams (though the team ranked 21st in PP% during the regular season at 19.5%).
So, the question is whether Montreal can respond tonight to even the series at one game apiece. It’s possible that simply a better game from Dobes is all it will take after he played quite well through the opening round, allowing three or fewer goals in every contest despite facing an elite Tampa Bay Lightning attack. The Canadiens also did clamp down on shot attempts as mentioned earlier, so continuing that trend against a Sabres unit that was positing almost 32 a game during the first round would certainly prove crucial. There’s also good news in that Nick Suzuki found the back of the net after notching just one goal in the first round, though the Habs need much more aggression from the first forward line of he, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 2 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Sabres as -135 home favorites to win on the Moneyline tonight one again, while the Canadiens come in with +114 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 72% of straight bets on Buffalo to win, 53% of wagers on the Sabres to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 83% on the total’s over.
Game 1 was the fifth time in five meetings between these sides this season that they combined for over 5.5 goals. With Buffalo’s power play finally sparking to life and Montreal potentially getting better shot volume than in round one, I think I like the over in this one as well. Yes, Alex Lyon has played some incredible hockey thus far with a .950 SV% and 1.30 GAA across six playoff games. While he’ll be tough for the Canadiens to crack, they did put two shots past him in Game 1, one of which came on the power play. There’s plenty of offensive talent on the Habs’ roster and while they just haven’t fully hit their stride yet, it does feel like a matter of time before they do.
