Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s limited slate: Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+271)
Let’s not get too complicated to start things off.
Kyle Schwarber is always one of the most popular home run props on the DraftKings Sportsbook — and for good reason. Since the beginning of 2022, Schwarber’s 198 home runs are the second-most in MLB, trailing only Aaron Judge. That’s a lot of winning tickets. Specific to 2026, Schwarber’s managed 11 long balls and a .311 ISO across his first 165 plate appearances of the season. That’s the product of 97th percentile marks in both bat speed (76.9) and barrel rate (19.8%). There’s a reason he just inked a $150 million contract as a 33-year-old DH.
With all that said, for odds lower than 3/1, you need to have a perfect matchup. I think we do on Thursday. J.T. Ginn will toe the rubber for the A’s, a man who has not been able to consistently retire left-handed hitters throughout his time at the MLB level. To wit, Ginn has allowed opposing LHBs to slash .306/.388/.554 with a .408 wOBA in his career. He’s also conceded 1.99 home runs per nine within the split. That’s a sample size of well over 300 lefties, so I’ll go out on a limb and say that’s a real hole in the RHP’s profile.
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+443)
Two contrasting things can be true at the same time. For instance, I can acknowledge that Junior Caminero isn’t having as good a season in 2026 as he was in 2025; but I can also admit that his home run odds on Thursday are slightly too long. See? That wasn’t that hard.
Last year, Caminero posted a 92nd percentile hard hit rate (51.4%) and a 91st percentile expected slugging rate (.501). He also hit a whopping 45 long balls. This year, Caminero’s Savant page looks far less red, yet the 22-year-old third baseman has still managed a team-high nine home runs in his 155 plate appearances, along with a .508 expected slugging rate specifically versus LHPs — another team-high. Seems perfectly dangerous to me!
The left-hander he’ll face tonight? Rookie Jake Bennett at Fenway Park. Bennett did a good job of mostly keeping the ball on the ground in his first major league outing, but despite that, the former second-round pick still found a way to concede a home run to Carlos Correa, along with a 13.3% opponent barrel rate and a 53.3% opponent hard hit rate. It’s going to take a moment for Bennett to get used to his new surroundings and transition. Unfortunately the giant wall in left field can only cover up so many mistakes.
