It was a shocking defeat for Texas (16-19) on Tuesday. Despite jumping out to an early 3-0 lead, the Rangers lost with ace Jacob deGrom on the mound. They’ll attempt to bounce back tonight, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees (25-11) look like the class of the American League, thanks in part to exceptional pitching. That includes Wednesday’s starter for New York, Will Warren.
The Yankees are favorites (-207) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Texas and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Yankees prediction, preview
This has all the makings of a terrific pitching matchup. For Texas, it’ll be Nathan Eovaldi on the bump. It’s been a shaky first few weeks for the veteran, owner of a 4.76 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 39 strikeouts. However, he’s fresh off of a scoreless seven-inning, four-hit performance against the Yankees on Thursday. In fact, the two-time All-Star has dominated in this spot before. During his last four meetings with New York, Evo owns a jaw-dropping 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP.
Unfortunately for the visitors, pitching is only one half of the game. Generating runs of their own has been a major issue for the Rangers so far. They’re averaging an American League-worst 3.78 runs per game. Texas has been better offensively on the road, but this is still a mediocre group. Just three lineup regulars, Brandon Nimmo, Josh Jung and Ezequiel Duran, have a wRC+ above 100 this season. The Rangers are especially bad when it comes to generating power; their .373 slugging percentage is the fifth-lowest mark in baseball.
As if that wasn’t enough, Texas will attempt to get it going against a solid young starter. Will Warren has been a pleasant surprise this season, looking like a potential All-Star. Through 37.2 innings of work, he’s recorded a 2.39 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 46 strikeouts. What stands out is the 26-year-old’s remarkable consistency. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in each of his seven appearances so far. That includes quality outings against above-average offenses such as the Athletics, Astros and Orioles. Warren has opted for a sweeper on nearly a quarter of his pitches (23.5%). Against that offering, the Rangers own a .217 expected batting average.
For all his past success, Eovaldi will certainly have to be at his best tonight. The Yankees come into this one on a roll, having won 14 of their last 16 contests. Big bats such as Cody Bellinger (.176 BA) and Jazz Chisholm (.077 BA) have struggled against the right-hander. However, Aaron Judge (.838 OPS) could do some damage. With that being said, early MVP candidate Ben Rice (hand) is being held out of the lineup for a third straight game. New York is still dangerous, but the lefty slugger makes things far more difficult on opposing pitchers.
Rangers vs. Yankees pick, best bet
As is usually the case, it’s difficult to find much value with a red-hot Yankees club. Their -207 price on the moneyline feels a tad too high against Eovaldi. On the flip side, a banged-up Texas offense doesn’t inspire much confidence against Warren’s sweeper-heavy approach. Don’t expect much scoring this evening in the Bronx.
