The Spurs will host the Timberwolves tonight at 9:30 PM EST for Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals. The Wolves are up 1-0 in this series after stealing Game 1 in dramatic fashion with a narrow two point victory, weathering Victor Wembanyama’s 12 block night.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Spurs are favored by 9.5 points and this game carries a total of 215.5 points.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite player prop bets for tonight’s matchup.
Best Spurs vs. Timberwolves Player Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Victor Wembanyama 3+ Assists (-225)
The Spurs’ offense is way better with Wemby on the floor, with this team posting 119.8 OFFRTG with him this season. This signifies a couple of things, which are probably true either independently or with each other: that his offense is a net positive, and/or that possessions flow through his touches: post entries, elbow catches, and quick, accurate decisions for when teams send help.
The Wolves, while being above average in limiting opponent assist numbers, aren’t elite. They allowed 25.9 opponent APG in the regular season, so this isn’t a scheme that automatically forces everything into isolation. Furthermore, Wemby averaged 3.1 APG in the regular season (200 total assists in 64 games), so you’re asking for him to land at around at his normal rate, especially with starters who can convert perimeter kickouts (Devin Vassell and Justin Champagnie) and a guard setup (De’Aaron Fox/Stephon Castle) that can keep the ball moving after the first pass.
Anthony Edwards Under 21.5 Points (-124)
Edwards returned from a knee issue in Game 1 and looked reasonably comfortable out of the gate, scoring 18 points in only 25 minutes while coming off the bench. The Wolves are clearly trying to ease their superstar back into the mix after some time off, and we can expect a longer leash this time around, but not long enough. Edwards is listed as Questionable but I’d bet on him playing.
With his teammate Julius Randle already carrying a heavy offensive responsibility, putting up 20 shots in the Game 1 victory over the Spurs, it’s tough to imagine Edwards taking more than the 13 shots he put up. There’s also the problem of Stephon Castle, an All-NBA level defender who’s going to make things tough for Ant. The Spurs will prioritize Castle staying on the floor for as long as possible, which spells bad news for Edwards’ offense tonight.
Jaden McDaniels Under 14.5 Points (-103)
McDaniels is essentially priced at his season baseline of 14.8 PPG, so we’re assuming that his usual volume doesn’t keep up tonight. In Game 1 he did get to 16, but it took 14 shots and he still didn’t make a three while playing 35 minutes, which is a thin margin to keep clearing 15 if the Wolves redistribute touches. And even though I’m not predicting a huge scoring night from Anthony Edwards, his availability is a key factor in McDaniels’ offensive output tonight. Those extra shots will go Ant’s way, and without them, it’s tough for McDaniels, who isn’t a natural scorer, to have a big night on offense against one of the best defenses in the league. Additionally,, San Antonio’s defense has been in a strong groove recently (109.0 DEFRTG over its last 10), and with Wembanyama erasing shots at the rim, the points that McDaniels lives on (cuts, straight-line finishes) get harder to bank on.
