Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have completely destroyed the Lakers in four meetings this season, and while I don’t want to put too much weight on the regular season, I’m expecting more of the same. OKC won the four matchups by an average of more than 30 points per game. Three of them were by 29 points or more, and the one competitive game that the Thunder won by nine points, they were without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
These teams met just once in the regular season when both were at full strength, just about a month ago in Saturday night primetime at OKC. The Thunder won that game by 43 points. It was the last time we’ve seen Luka Doncic, who suffered a hamstring injury during the game. While Doncic could return at some point in the series, he will not be ready to play when it begins on Tuesday night. And if Luka does return, what will he look like?
While the Lakers were able to step up their defense in the first round of the playoffs, that series was much more about Houston’s ineptitude on offense. The Rockets, who were mostly without Kevin Durant, averaged just over 98 points per game in the series. They topped 100 points just twice, and one of those games went to overtime.
OKC averaged 125.5 points per game in the four meetings with the Lakers this season, and that number rises to 127.7 games if we just take the three that SGA played in. I don’t see the Lakers being able to maintain the effectiveness they had on defense with this extreme change in style of offense they’ll be up against.
On the flip side, the Lakers should struggle to score. To be fair, I’ll toss out the last meeting between these teams where the Lakers sat their key guys and scored just 87 points. Even in the other three games, Los Angeles averaged less than 100 points per game, and only topped 100 in the game Gilgeous-Alexander missed. The Lakers barely eclipsed 100 points per game in the first round against the Rockets, and will struggle to do so in this series against a stronger defense. If the scoring by the Lakers does get inflated, it’s likely because they’re playing from so far behind.
I’m going to back the Thunder on the sweep here, which you can bet at +125 to be a four-game series. I also like betting OKC to take a 3-0 lead at a -135 price tag. OKC will be a -1000 favorite or larger in each home game. If something happens heading into Game 3 or Game 4 that we want to buy off of, we can easily back some Lakers moneyline in either of those games.
Series Pick: Correct Score After Game 3 – OKC 3-0 (-135)
Series Pick: Exact Games – 4 (+125)
As for a Game 1 pick, I’ll back OKC to score. I mentioned the 125.5 points the Thunder averaged against the Lakers this season, with a low of 119 (without SGA). The low with SGA in the lineup was 121 points, and the high was 139 points in what was the most meaningful matchup between these teams. OKC’s team total feels pretty modest at 114.5. It would take OKC slowing pace with a monster lead, or a completely unexpected defensive effort from the Lakers to keep the Thunder, who scored 119-plus in each game in the first round, under 115 in this matchup.
Game 1 Pick: OKC Team Total OVER 114.5 (-115)
