It’s been nine years since the dramatic, controversial 2017 World Series between the Dodgers and Astros. In the near-decade since, these two clubs have racked up a combined seven pennants and four titles. Another trip to the Fall Classic is certainly on the table for Los Angeles (22-13), the two-time defending champions. The same can’t be said for Houston (14-22), fourth place in the AL West. Can the ‘Stros bounce back on Tuesday against their interleague rivals?
The Dodgers are favorites (-232) over the Astros, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Los Angeles and Houston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Astros prediction, preview
It’ll be none other than Shohei Ohtani on the bump tonight in Houston. Los Angeles’ two-way superstar has been arguably better as a pitcher than a hitter. Granted, it helps to be freakishly good at both. Through five outings as a starter, the Japanese ace has notched a minuscule 0.60 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 34 strikeouts. Even more impressive is the right-hander’s ability to go deep into games. Ohtani has tossed exactly six innings in each of his pitching appearances this season. To boot, he has yet to surrender a single run over 12.0 frames on the road.
Ohtani will face arguably his toughest test of the season so far against Houston. The Astros are an offensive juggernaut, ranking third in batting average (.267), sixth in homers (44) and fifth in runs scored (181). Leading the way is Yordan Alvarez, one of baseball’s premier sluggers. Unburdened by nagging injuries, the Cuban is reminding everyone just how dangerous he can be when fully healthy. Through 36 games, he’s slashing .333/.438/.667 with 12 homers, 27 RBIs and a league-leading 45 hits. Five other regulars in Houston’s lineup have posted a wRC+ greater than 100.
With that being said, even the best offenses in baseball can struggle with an elite starting pitcher. Part of what makes Ohtani so dangerous is a devastating sweeper, his most used off-speed selection (22%). Against that pitch, the Astros have a lackluster .223 expected batting average. During his last nine meetings with Houston, as a pitcher, Ohtani has only given up 15 earned runs (2.72 ERA).
It’s not as if the ‘Stros have a top-notch arm of their own taking the hill. It’ll be Peter Lambert this evening at Daikin Park, making his fourth appearance of the season. The 29-year-old hasn’t been terrible so far, posting a 3.52 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Regardless, it’s a small sample size for the former Colorado hurler. During his time with the Rockies, Lambert delivered a dismal 6.12 ERA. Unsurprisingly, the righty has struggled mightily against the Dodgers. Through 15.0 career innings vs. Los Angeles, he’s on the hook for an eye-popping 10.13 ERA.
It’s worth noting that the defending champs aren’t operating at full strength. Former All-Stars Mookie Betts (oblique) and Tommy Edman (ankle) won’t be suiting up tonight. The Dodgers have only scored 18 runs over their last five games, tenth-worst in the majors during that time. Still, it’s foolish to assume that will continue, especially at a hitter-friendly ballpark. Lambert has thrown some combination of a changeup and slider on 40% of his pitches this season. Los Angeles has a .273 expected batting average and .405 slugging percentage against those two offerings.
Dodgers vs. Astros pick, best bet
It doesn’t take a genius to see why the Dodgers enter this one as heavy favorites. Still, that only makes it more difficult for bettors to find value on the visitors tonight. Ohtani has been automatic, so much so that I’m still backing him against a loaded Astros lineup. On the other side, Lambert is due for some negative regression. Against a familiar foe, I’m not expecting Houston’s starter to last very long.
