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Prediction, pick for Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg at UFC Perth

Prediction, pick for Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg at UFC Perth

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

It’s going down in the “Land Down Under” as ranked flyweights — Tim Elliott and hometown favorite Steve Erceg — collide at UFC Perth.

Elliott (22–13–1, 10–11 UFC) has won six of his last eight bouts, most recently cinching a second-round submission against Kai Asakura in August 2025. Erceg (13–4, 4–3 UFC) snapped a brutal three-fight skid that same month with a unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne.

Erceg enters as a -238 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Elliott sits as a +195 underdog. The total is set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Elliott vs. Erceg Preview

Tim Elliott (#11)

Tim Elliott refuses to slow down as he nears the finish line. At 39, the seasoned veteran has won six of his last eight fights, a strong run punctuated by a second-round submission victory over former RIZIN champion Kai Asakura in August. 

The former TUF winner — who made his UFC debut in 2012 — has made a career out of relentless grappling, chaotic scrambles, and eccentric movement. Eleven of his 22 professional victories have come inside the distance, highlighted by eight submissions and six first-round finishes. He enters Saturday night eyeing one last run at the title before it’s all said and done.

Steve Erceg (#12)

It’s been all downhill since Steve Erceg’s flyweight title loss to dominant champion Alexandre Pantoja in May 2024. That defeat triggered a three-fight tailspin for the Australian contender. 

“Astroboy” finally broke his fall with a short-notice decision victory over Ode Osbourne at bantamweight in August. Now 30, he looks to resume his push toward the 125-pound throne. 

Erceg pairs black-belt jiu-jitsu with surgical striking, wielding more than enough power to end a fight. Eight of his 13 professional wins have come by finish, including six submissions — and underscored by his thunderous second-round knockout of Matt Schnell.

Elliott vs. Erceg Pick, Best Bet

Tim Elliott had already made his UFC debut by the time Steve Erceg first put on a pair of gloves. 

What the Australian lacks in Octagon experience, he makes up for with elite striking, sound takedown defense, and nearly a decade less wear and tear. Add to that a notable size advantage.

Expect “Astroboy” to neutralize Elliott’s frantic style, stuffing takedowns and asserting himself on the feet. His measured style likely won’t produce a finish, but it should be enough to secure the win in front of the hometown crowd.

Best Bet: Steve Erceg by Decision (-110)

Cooper is a Brooklyn-based writer and editor who joined DraftKings in September 2025. A recent graduate of Jay-Z’s Roc Nation School of Sports at Long Island University, he served as the chief sports editor of the campus newspaper and the lead sideline reporter for the men’s basketball team. His previous stops include amNewYork and the New York Post.
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