Major League Baseball has a massive Friday night slate lined up to start the month of May, with plenty of great options to consider for home run props. Both Coors Field and Sutter Health Park are in play with 14 games on the board starting at 6:00 p.m. ET or later. There are plenty of juicy home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook for late this Friday night, so let’s pinpoint a few of my best bets.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday: Willson Contreras, Shohei Othani and Ozzie Albies.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Willson Contreras 1+ Home Run (+409)
The Red Sox have had a miserable start to the season, but one of the few bright spots in their lineup has been Willson Contreras, who they added in a trade this offseason from the Cardinals.
Contreras has seven homers in his 30 games with a 48.6% hard-hit rate and an 18.1% barrel rate, which would be a new career-high. He has hit three of his seven homers in his 13 home games, despite chilly temperatures in Boston early in the season. He has hit four of those seven homers against righties, and he’ll take on righty Mike Burrows on Friday.
Burrows has given up seven homers in six starts with a 7.15 road ERA and three homers against him in his 11 1/3 innings away from Diakin Park.
Contreras has homered in three of his last five games with a 62.5% hard-hit rate and 31.3% barrel rate. He hit this blast on Wednesday in his most recent matchup:
Shohei Ohtani 1+ Home Run (+300)
Normally, I avoid picking Ohtani since his odds are so short, but for this matchup, he actually brings some solid value at +300. Ohtani always has the potential to go yard, regardless of matchup, and I actually think he brings excellent value as the Dodgers head to St. Louis to start their series against the Cardinals.
Ohtani has six homers on the season, which is slightly off his prolific pace from the past few seasons. He did homer earlier this week, and has a 52% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate over his last 10 games as a hitter.
That home run came off a lefty, and he has three lefty-lefty homers this year with a .375 batting average and .510 wOBA in the reverse splits. That’s especially relevant as he takes on lefty Matthew Liberatore on Friday night. Liberatore has some reverse splits of his own, with lefties hitting .387 with a .535 wOBA against him on the season. Lefties have just 33 plate appearances against Liberatore (24.4%) but they have hit four of the eight homers he has allowed.
With those reverse splits, this is actually a sneaky strong Shohei day in St. Louis this Friday.
Ozzie Albies 1+ Home Run (+469)
The Braves are at Coors Field this Friday to start a series against the Rockies. While the wind isn’t blowing out, the elevation still makes it a good spot to target for home run props. The Rockies will give the ball to veteran lefty Jose Quintana, and it’s an especially juicy matchup with how locked in Ozzie Albies has been over the last several games.
Albies has a great history against Quintana, going 9-for-19 with two doubles and three homers against him in the past. Quintana has served up four homers in 18 1/3 innings this season, posting a 4.91 ERA and 6.79 FIP.
In his 32 games this season, Albies has hit seven homers, including three in his last seven games. He has hit three of his seven homers against lefties as a right-handed hitter and is hitting .373 with a .439 wOBA in that split. Albies has a history of mashing lefties and especially teeing off on Quintana. He’ll look to stay hot on Friday after taking lefty Tarik Skubal deep earlier this week:
