The Boston Bruins managed to stave off elimination on the road earlier this week, keeping their season alive even in front of a raucous Buffalo crowd that craves its first playoff series win since 2007. Now, the Sabres travel to TD Garden trying once more to close the best-of-seven out. Will this series be extended for just one more night?
Here’s a Sabres vs. Bruins Game 6 prediction and pick for Friday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sabres vs. Bruins Game 6 prediction, preview
So, Boston responded to a 6-1 drubbing in Game 4 with a much tighter performance last time out, narrowly escaping overtime with a 2-1 victory. After being pulled in the prior matchup, netminder Jeremy Swayman finished with 24 saves on 25 shots, good for a .960 SV%. That was quite the impressive outing given that many goalies would’ve been shaken by the previous performance, but there’s a reason that the Bruins’ goalie earned a nod as a Vezina Trophy finalist this season. He’ll absolutely have to put forth a similar effort tonight to keep his team alive though, especially with Buffalo’s offense still ranking as one of the best among the Stanley Cup Playoff field.
The Sabres are averaging 3.20 goals and 32.8 shots on net per game, the latter of which sits second among the 16 teams which made the postseason. They’ve maintained a slight edge in high-danger chances with 42 in 5v5 play and 16 on the power play, but converting with that man advantage has been a real weakness to this point. Buffalo’s 5.0% PP% comes on a 1-for-20 line, but the team doesn’t lag that far behind Boston at just 12.5% (2-for-16). The difference, though, is that the Bruins have struggled to put a ton of pucks on net with just 25.0 shots on goal per game, second fewest among playoff teams. From that, we see that the Sabres are doing well at controlling possession and getting into shooting lanes.
The hope for Buffalo tonight beyond the advantages on offense is Alex Lyon. Across his four games this postseason, the goaltender boasts an incredible .953 SV% and 1.18 GAA. He’s drastically outperformed a 2.18 xGAA, perhaps as a result of not allowing a goal on any unblocked high-danger chance yet. Still, he’s been quite impressive and is clearly in a groove. Sometimes, a hot goalie is all you need in a playoff environment.
Sabres vs. Bruins Game 6 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Sabres as -122 favorites to win on the road on the Moneyline tonight, while the Bruins come in with +102 odds at their own barn. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 63% of straight bets on Buffalo to win, 63% of wagers on Boston to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 61% on the total’s over.
Honestly, it might be best to take the under rather than try and pick a winner tonight. Here’s the reasoning. For starters, both of the goalies have high ceilings. Obviously, Lyon is in form as well and the Buffalo defense has kept shots down for the opposing attack. Even despite Swayman’s struggles at times this series, he still sits at a .910 SV% overall, but there’s more reason to believe he does enough to keep the scoreboard on the lower side here. He’s been a home-ice warrior over the course of the full season as his splits show a pretty drastic dichotomy between his performance at TD Garden and on the road. At home, he brings a 2.18 GAA and .920 SV%. In away games, those marks read 3.26 and .897. Perhaps he just sees the puck better on home ice, but whatever the case, it’s worked for the Bruins — they tied for the best regular-season record at home during the regular season, going 29-11-1 in Boston.
For what it’s worth, the Sabres were also marginally worse on the road this year. Their goal differential at home in the regular season ended at 27 while the road number come in at 16. They also averaged almost two fewer shots on goal on the road, while the power play dropped from 23.3% to 15.4%. Sure, it’s the playoffs and the environment is a bit different. But with Boston better at home and Buffalo a smidge below the standard in away games, I really like the under on 5.5 combined goals and would take the Bruins’ puck line if there were any standalone value there.
