Bayern Münich have already been confirmed champions of the Bundesliga, but there’s still plenty to play for in Germany’s top flight. It’s not yet clear whether the Bundesliga or La Liga will earn the second European Performance Place, but either way, both Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig still have a realistic shot of playing in the Champions League next season. Leipzig has a comfortable five-point buffer over Stuttgart and Hoffenheim for the fourth and final automatic place, but Leverkusen trails Hoffenheim by two points in sixth.
The teams will face off at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at the BayArena, and three points for either club (especially Die Werkself) would go a long way towards that club ultimately claiming an automatic position in the League Phase next season.
Leverkusen is a +110 favorite to to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Die Roten Bullen are +185. There are +285 odds that the teams will draw, a result that whichever team wins the earlier Hoffenheim-Stuttgart matchup would surely celebrate.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig prediction, pick
Of the two teams, Leipzig has been the far more consistent side this season. Die Roten Ballen got off to a hot start, winning seven of their first nine Bundesliga games, and despite a slow stretch in the middle of the season that included a loss to Die Werkself, they’ve also won six of their last seven matches. Unlike Leverkusen, Leipzig was eliminated early from the DfB-Pokal, falling to Bayern Münich in the quarterfinals in February), and it didn’t partake in any European competition. It’s perhaps not surprising, then, that Die Werkself has had much more inconsistent form, especially in games sandwiched around their Champions League knockout ties against Olympiakos and Arsenal and their DfB-Pokal semifinals defeat to Bayern. Either way, now that both teams have been eliminated from the German cup, all either has to focus on is qualifying for next season’s Champions League through their Bundesliga placement.
Leverkusen has a pretty deep squad. Patrik Schick, who leads the team with 19 goals in all competitions, is the marquee name and played a big role in the league title in 2023-24, and while he and Álex Grimaldo have more than 10 goals this season, nine different players have at least five. All in all, Die Werkself still rank fourth in the German top flight in goals scored, and they’ve still been among the most clinical teams, ranking sixth in goals minus expected goals. They’ve been elite from headers and fast breaks while ranking second in pass completion percentage, though they also rank second in errors leading to a shot. Die Werkself have been solid in the back, conceding the third-fewest expected goals on the fourth-lowest shot-in-box percentage while winning a majority of both ground and aerial duels. They’ve also generated the second-most high turnovers leading to a goal. Leverkusen’s main issues have come in between the sticks: Mark Flekken has just a 72.0% save percentage and has allowed more goals than expected goals, though Janis Blaswich — who will likely start with Flekken suffering from an injury — has been significantly better, especially in the Champions League against Arsenal.
As for Die Roten Bullen, they have two players with 12 goals each in the Bundesliga, with Cristoph Baumgartner and 19-year-old summer signing Yan Diomandé each contributing that many. Additionally, both Baumgartner and Diomandé have demonstrated playmaking chops, distributing seven assists apiece. In total, Leipzig has scored 62 Bundesliga goals (exactly as many as Die Werkself) while producing the second-best chances and attempting the second-most shots on target in the division. Die Roten Bullen have been slightly less clinical than Leverkusen, completing passes at lower rates both overall and in the final third, but they’ve made up for it through set pieces. Defensively, they’ve given up 4.16 more expected goals’ worth of chances than Die Werkself but have allowed four fewer goals because Maarten Vandevoort has stepped up in relief of Péter Gulácsi. However, they’ve been vulnerable against fast-breaks, haven’t done as good of a job forcing their high takeaways into goals, and they’ve committed slightly more fouls.
The first time these teams faced off, on December 20, Leverkusen picked up a 3-1 victory, and while Diomandé didn’t play in that one and each team had a different goalie than its starter on Saturday, I’ll back a similar result. Die Werkself’s discipline in timing their runs should help break Leipzig’s offsides trap, and Die Roten Bullen can be somewhat vulnerable against fast-breaks, where Leverkusen excels. Die Werkself have also been pretty solid against set pieces, limiting one avenue through which Leipzig likes to score. Even though Die Roten Bullen are in hot form, they haven’t played many difficult opponents lately, and Kasper Hjulmand’s men should be just good enough to take all three points at home.
