The first-round series between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild has seen plenty of back-and-forth affairs, but the best-of-seven now teeters on the brink of the end. Minnesota has managed to take a 3-2 series lead after back-to-back comeback wins, pushing Dallas to the edge of the elimination cliff. The stylistic differences between these squads are notable, making for a fascinating matchup tonight with the stakes at their highest yet.
Here’s a Stars vs. Wild Game 6 prediction and pick for Thursday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Stars vs. Wild Game 6 prediction, preview
What a series this has been with plenty of hits and overtime action. Minnesota took Game 1 in a blowout victory on the road before Dallas stole the next two contests to go up 2-1. However, the Stars coughed up a multi-goal lead in Game 4 and have spiraled since, now teetering on the brink of their season ending far sooner than they likely anticipated. Meanwhile, the Wild can down a division rival and break the curse of seven consecutive first-round exits.
The story of the series? That would be the disparity in the results at even strength and on the power play. It seems Marcus Foligno was correct when he said the Stars couldn’t hang with the Wild in 5v5 play — Dallas has just three goals in such situations this series while Minnesota has 11, with the former shooting a miserable 2.59% on 116 attempts on goal. The inverse is true on the man advantage though, with the Stars at a 39.1% PP% and the Wild trailing at 18.2%. Dallas has gone 9-for-23 on its chances and finished at a 20.51% clip on SOG; Minnesota is 4-for-22 while hitting 11.76% of its own SOG.
What’s particularly interesting is that the Stars’ own strategy hasn’t changed. They’re still hunting for the highest-quality looks possible, tallying 43 high-danger chances in 5v5 with another 21 on the power play. They’ve simply failed to finish on those at even strength, scoring just once on that sample while potting four of the chances on the man advantage. The play of Jesper Wallstedt in net (.926 SV%, 2.05 GAA) and the Wild’s ability to clog shooting lanes has made all the difference in the series.
Stars vs. Wild Game 6 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Wild as -122 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Stars come in with +102 odds on the road. The game total sits at just 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 59% of straight bets on Minnesota to win, 65% of wagers on Dallas to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 73% on the total’s over.
Something absolutely needs to change for the Stars to have a chance to keep their season alive. Someone besides Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen will have to figure out how to get the better of Wallstedt and this defense to put the puck in the net. If that comes from the depth players the team was lauded for on its lower lines, even better. As to this point though, those guys are yet to show up like they did during the regular season. It also seems as though star Mikko Rantanen may possibly be playing through an injury — he does not look like his typical self in this series and hasn’t been the same since returning from the injury that sidelined him following the Olympic break.
The absence of Nils Lundkvist, who took a skate to the face in Game 4 and missed Game 5 before not traveling with the team for this Game 6, also bodes quite poorly for Dallas. The defenseman has been one of the team’s best players when healthy this postseason, so the Stars will have to turn to their depth on the blue line to step up. Plus, Minnesota just returned Mats Zuccarello and Yakov Trenin from their respective injuries last game. With the Wild now fully healthy, the loss of Lundkvist as well as the lingering absence of Roope Hintz become even more of a problem for Dallas.
All in all, the Wild simply look like the better team in this series. Most of the action takes place at even strength so their advantage there is already a notable one, especially with Kirill Kaprizov notching three points last game to become the postseason leader alongside an energetic Matt Boldy. Outside of Robertson, the Stars have been outplayed by Minnesota nearly from top to bottom. The Wild are also more physical and have taken a toll on their opponent with the third-most hits of any playoff team. That adds up over the course of a series.
Stranger things have happened, especially with how this Dallas team has pulled playoff magic out of a hat to escape some tough situations over the last couple of deep runs. However, that luck must run out eventually. It doesn’t appear that another trip to the Western Conference Final — or even the second round — is on deck.
