After going to overtime last time they faced off, the Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights now find their first-round series all tied up. With two games in hand on either side, tonight’s Game 5 brings immense pressure and elevated stakes with the ability to put the losing franchise on the ropes of elimination. Will it be the scrappy underdogs or the proven playoff performer who rises to the occasion?
Here’s a Mammoth vs. Golden Knights Game 5 prediction and pick for Wednesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mammoth vs. Golden Knights Game 5 prediction, preview
The Mammoth just keep showing tremendous resilience throughout this series. Despite falling behind 3-0 in Game 4, they rallied to tie it up and had a real chance to go on to win the entire contest. Sure, they didn’t get the result they were after, but they made life difficult on the Golden Knights when many teams would’ve essentially called it a night facing such a deficit.
In the bigger picture of the series, here’s how the stats shake out. Both teams are scoring and allowing 3.25 goals per game with 13 goals apiece, so they’ve been quite evenly matched in terms of sheer differential. Vegas has an advantage in shot volume with 30.0 SOG per game to Utah’s 26.3 though, and the more experienced roster is clearly getting better looks as well — the Golden Knights have 43 high-danger chances at even strength to 27 for the Mammoth. That also applies on the power play with 14 high-danger opportunities in 5v4 situations for Vegas and only five for Utah. However, neither power play has been particularly strong, garnering a P% of 15.4% and 11.1%, respectively.
The goalie numbers don’t appear particularly impressive at first glance. Karel Vejmelka has an 0.899 SV% and 2.80 GAA for the Mammoth but has been a huge reason why they’re even in this series. On the other side, Carter Hart brings an 0.877 SV% with a 3.08 GAA into Game 5. Notably, he’s severely underperformed a 2.62 xGAA.
Perhaps it’s his performance, then, that’s allowed Utah to make this a series. Personally, I liked the group as an underdog pick to win the best-of-seven outright, but there’s one more stat I’d like to mention before moving to the next section. The Mammoth have a 3.55 GF/60 in 5v5 situations. Why is that interesting? Well, they have just a 2.07 xGF/60, so it seems they’re drastically overperforming expectations at even strength.
Mammoth vs. Golden Knights Game 5 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Golden Knights as -166 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Mammoth come in with +140 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 72% of straight bets on Vegas to win, 67% of wagers on Utah to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 82% on the total’s over.
The odds may favor the Golden Knights, but personally, I believe this matchup is practically a toss-up. The Mammoth have somehow made magic happen a couple of times so far in this series and their opponent isn’t the dominant force of years past. That’s especially true given Hart’s inconsistency.
Instead of a game pick though, there’s a player prop I really like for tonight’s contest. Vejmelka has an .899 SV% but has actually performed pretty well given the context of the volume he’s faced. With Vegas averaging over 30 SOG per game, Utah’s netminder has stopped 107 of the 119 shots he’s faced in the series thus far. That comes out to an average of 26.75 saves per game. More importantly, he’s gone over tonight’s betting line of 25.5 saves in three of his four appearances with totals of 31, 30, and 27 saves in the games in which this over cashed. It feels like a reliable pick since he’ll face plenty of shots tonight and has mostly held up under pressure.
