What a first-round series we’ve gotten between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. These sides have traded wins in each game, three of which went to overtime as well. Every one of these four contests have been decided by one goal apiece, so there’s no doubt that these teams are quite close together in terms of competitiveness and talent. Expect another very tight affair tonight.
Here’s a Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 5 prediction and pick for Wednesday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 5 prediction, preview
Let’s take a look at the numbers so far, shall we?
A series can’t get much more even than this one. Both teams are scoring and allowing 2.75 goals per game, surely a result of stifling defense. The Lightning are averaging 23.5 shots on goal per game while the Canadiens are posting just 23.3. The skaters are making it difficult to put pucks on the net, with Montreal in particular averaging over 17 blocks/60 as well. The goaltenders have nearly identical numbers with Jakub Dobes at an .883 SV% and 2.60 GAA; meanwhile, Andrei Vasilevskiy holds an .882 SV% with a 2.58 GAA. Their marks in expected goals against sit at 11.08 and 11.77, respectively.
To borrow a line from Marvel’s Thanos to describe this series — “Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.” We love to see how close things have been, but it’s almost a little bit uncanny in some ways. It certainly makes it much tougher to project what’s going to happen in the next game, but there’s an area or two we can look towards for inspiration.
The Lightning were one of the most potent teams at even strength during the regular season, but their 1.66 xGF/60 in 5v5 play during this series are tied for the fewest of any team. Granted, the Canadiens’ are the squad they’re tied with in that stat, but it’s certainly meaningful that there’s not a disparity in this regard. Montreal actually has the edge with 26 high-danger chances to Tampa Bay’s 17 at even strength though, and we haven’t even touched on the power play yet. The Canadiens are at 26.3% whereas the Lightning are at 20.0%, and while the margin is slim with the former 5-for-19 and the latter 4-for-20, Montreal still has two more high-danger chances on the man advantage.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 5 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lightning as -170 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Canadiens come in with +142 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 67% of straight bets on Tampa Bay to win, 76% of wagers on Montreal to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 67% on the total’s over.
As mentioned in the intro, all four games have been decided by just one goal. Game 1 ended with a 4-3 overtime finish, but the other three all finished with final scores of 3-2. That means they’ve stayed under today’s game total of 5.5 in three straight contests. Between the fact that the defenses are so good at keeping shots down, the offenses are underperforming compared to the talent level on both sides, and the ceilings of these goalies, I like the under once again tonight. Conditions are ripe for another low-scoring contest since these squads are at the bottom of the postseason field in expected scoring.
If I had to pick a winning team, I’d probably lean toward Montreal here just because the Canadiens have been so pesky while blocking more shots and getting a few better looks as shooters. Still, I’m down for the under at -102 odds.
