Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the April 28 slate, with a mix of offensive upside and pitchers in tough situations. The Pirates are in a great position against Kyle Leahy and a shaky Cardinals bullpen, Yordan Alvarez draws a favorable matchup against Shane Baz’s struggles against lefties, and Merrill Kelly continues to show signs of major regression heading into a tough spot against the Brewers. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Best MLB Prop Bets Today (April 28, 2026)
- Best Team Total: Pirates team total over 4.5 runs: Kyle Leahy faces a lefty-heavy lineup and will turn it over to one of the league’s worst bullpens.
- Best Batter Prop: Yordan Alvarez 3+ H/R/RBI: Solid matchup against Shane Baz, who has a .432 wOBA vs. lefties in 2026.
- Best Pitcher Prop: Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs allowed: Kelly’s xERA of 13.6 and a 9.03 FIP indicate the worst is yet to come.
Let’s break down why these stand out.
MLB Prop Bets Breakdown (April 28, 2026)
Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates team total over 4.5 runs (+100) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Kyle Leahy is set to take the mound tonight for the Cardinals, which has my attention on the Pirates team total. Leahy has been as bad as his surface numbers indicate, as his 5.63 ERA, xERA of 5.70, and FIP of 5.67 are all aligned. Leahy is a contact pitcher who generates a lot of hard contact, currently at 49% on the season, along with a high ground ball rate at 53%. He’s made five starts and has allowed at least two runs in each one. He also doesn’t go deep into games, having pitched no more than five innings in any of them. Lefties have given him the most trouble with a .447 wOBA, a 5.96 FIP, and two of the four home runs he’s allowed. That makes this start against the Pirates enticing, as they’ll likely have at least five lefties near the top of the lineup.
Once Leahy departs, he’ll turn it over to a terrible Cardinals bullpen. They’ve combined for a 4.77 ERA, an xERA of 5.11, and a 4.73 FIP. They also have the lowest K/9 in the league at 6.7, meaning they allow a ton of contact. With Leahy not going deep into games, it’s reasonable to expect the bullpen to cover multiple innings, giving the Pirates plenty of opportunities to score at least five runs.
Yordan Alvarez 3+ H/R/RBI (+107) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Alvarez is in a great matchup against Shane Baz and the Orioles tonight. Baz has some really poor numbers against lefties to this point, owning a .432 wOBA with a 4.12 FIP and an xFIP of 5.27. He throws a four-seam fastball, curveball, and cutter, but his four-seam has been getting demolished, with opposing hitters tagging it for a .430 wOBA. This plays directly into Alvarez’s strengths, as he has a .679 wOBA and a .526 ISO against four-seamers from righties so far this season. Baz has allowed at least three runs in four of his five starts, and this sets up as a strong spot for Alvarez to produce hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Merrill Kelly over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-106) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We haven’t seen much of Kelly this season, but what we have seen has been rough. Through 9.2 innings, he’s allowed 10 runs on 15 hits, including four home runs and seven walks. While eight of those runs came in his last start, his first outing wasn’t much better under the hood, posting an xERA of 9.38 and a 6.69 FIP.
Kelly doesn’t have strong numbers on any of his pitches right now. His four-seam fastball and changeup, his two most-used pitches, have been hit hard, with opposing hitters posting a .691 wOBA and .477 wOBA against them. Both pitches also have an expected batting average above .347, so this isn’t just bad luck. Until he shows signs of improvement, this remains a spot to target opposing offenses.
More MLB Betting Content & Picks
Check out more MLB betting content and player props throughout the season on DraftKings Network.
- MLB NRFI Tracker
- MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Tuesday 4/28/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top NRFI props for Tuesday 4/28/26
Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
