Major League Baseball is wrapping up a busy weekend with a jam-packed afternoon of action on the sun-baked diamonds across the country. Most of the action starts early in the afternoon, but there are five games on the board that start after 4:00 p.m. ET. If you’re looking to close out your Sunday afternoon with some home run props, a few options stand out due to their environment, matchups and current trends. Let’s pinpoint a few juicy home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for late this Sunday afternoon.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday: Jackson Merrill, Salvador Perez and Seiya Suzuki.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Jackson Merrill 1+ Home Run (+261)
The Padres and the Diamondbacks meet in the second game of their short two-game series in Mexico City at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú is a hitter-friendly park, and the elevation makes it similar to Coors Field for home runs in many ways. There were three homers in the first game of the series, and today’s game is again expected to be high-scoring with an over/under of 15 runs.
Merrill is my top option for home run props in this contest as he takes on Ryne Nelson. Merrill has gotten off to a slow start with only three homers in his 26 games and a batting average of only .204. He does have a solid 45.2% hard-hit rate and 12.3% barrel rate, including five barrels and a 13.5% barrel rate over his last 14 games.
In his career, Merrill is 5-for-12 with a double, a homer and a 1.167 OPS against Nelson. Nelson has struggled to a 6.97 ERA and 5.40 FIP, and he has given up a 50.7% hard-hit rate this season, with four homers allowed. Lefties like Merrill have three of those four long balls off Nelson, so Merrill is in a good spot for another blast like this:
Salvador Perez 1+ Home Run (+468)
The Royals and Angels were originally scheduled to play on Sunday Night Baseball, but the game was moved up to avoid rain later in the day. The Royals and Salvador Perez will now take on lefty Reid Detmers at 4:10 p.m. ET as they look to finish a three-game sweep of the sinking Halos.
Detmers has been good against lefties this season, but righties like Perez have more success with a .237 batting average, six doubles and a homer. The Royals haven’t had a lot of power overall this year, but Perez ranks second on the team with four homers. He’s only hitting .186 but still has a 39.7% hard-hit rate and 9.0% barrel rate. He has 10 hard-hit balls in his last eight games, including two home runs. He went yard on Saturday, and with the wind blowing out to left, he is a solid play at 4:1 to go deep again on Sunday afternoon.
Seiya Suzuki 1+ Home Run (+379)
After starting the season a little late, Suzuki has been swinging a hot stick and is the top option in my home run props for Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Cubs had their 10-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, but they’ll look to get back in the win column as they take on lefty Justin Wrobleski. Wrobleski has been very good this season and hasn’t given up any home runs, but he’s holding lefties to just a .167 batting average, while righties like Suzuki have had a little more success.
Suzuki has homered four times in his last five games, going 10-for-20 (.500) with a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate. He has multiple hard-hit batted ball events in four of those five games, with a max exit velocity over 101 miles per hour in each of those five games. He’ll look to keep mashing Sunday afternoon, and even against Wrobleski, he’s a solid value play at these odds.
