10-year UFC veteran Max Griffin is back to take on UFC debutant Victor Valenzuela on the Prelims of tonight’s UFC Fight Night. This is Griffin’s 19th appearance in the UFC, as he made his promotion debut at UFC 202 in August 2016 against Colby Covington. Valenzuela enters this fight with a 13-4 record with nine wins by submission or knockout.
Check out my best bet for Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela at UFC Vegas 116.
Fight to Go the Distance (-145)
Valenzuela’s first appearance under the UFC was on Dana White’s Contender Series in October 2025. On DWCS, Valenzuela suffered a knockout loss to Michael Oliveira but now makes his UFC debut after picking up a knockout victory in March. Valenzuela’s last five wins have come by knockout in the first or second round. Since December 2014, Valenzuela is 8-4 with 11 of the 12 fights in that span ending by KO/TKO/DQ or submission.
After losing his last two fights, Griffin’s career could be coming to an end in the near future if he cannot get back in the win column. Griffin is 40 years old and is coming off back-to-back losses to Chris Curtis and Michael Chiesa. The UFC veteran has physical advantages in this contest, as he is taller (5’11” vs. 5’9″) and has a longer reach (76″ vs. 71″).
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Griffin is a slight +110 underdog while Valenzuela is a -130 favorite. The total is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over being -180 and the under at +140. Valenzuela’s last seven fights have ended by submission or knockout, and he hasn’t been to a decision since June 2022. But he could struggle against someone as experienced as Griffin, who has only been finished twice in his career. Six of Griffin’s last seven contests have gone the full 15 minutes. I think Griffin will make it difficult for Valenzuela to exert his dominance on the feet, prolonging the fight. Getting this bout at -145 to go the distance is my favorite play for this matchup.
