The Anaheim Ducks entered the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs as an underdog against a much more experienced — and star-laden — Edmonton Oilers roster. Now, this series sits knotted at one game apiece as the action shifts to California on Friday night for a pivotal Game 3.
Here’s an Oilers vs. Ducks Game 3 prediction and pick for tonight’s NHL Playoffs matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oilers vs. Ducks Game 3 prediction, preview
For those who have been reading my previews for the first two games of this series, welcome back. For those who are just tuning in, we’ve been counting the total number of goals scored between these teams throughout the year, including the playoffs. Ready for an update? Strap in.
In three regular-season matchups, the Oilers and Ducks combined for 28 goals. They scored another seven in Game 1 to bring that total to 35 in four games. After a 10-goal outing in Game 2, the tally now sits at 45 combined goals across just five contests. That’s good for an average of nine goals per game between these teams. Holy smokes.
With that said, you can probably read between the lines on what kind of pick we’re looking at tonight. Let’s take just a moment to dive into a couple of stats first, though.
Edmonton netminder Connor Ingram finished the regular season with an .899 SV% and 2.60 GAA. Through two postseason games, those numbers have dropped to an .855 SV% and 4.03 GAA. Woof. In the opposite goal, Lukas Dostal ended his regular-season slate with a 3.10 GAA and .888 SV%. He has an .887 SV% and 4.08 GAA in his two playoff starts. Double woof.
Here’s one more for you. The Ducks and Oilers ranked third and fourth in shots on goal per game in the regular season with 30.8 and 29.7, respectively. In two contests of this series thus far, Edmonton is averaging 35.5. Anaheim’s average sits at 28. The environment is ripe for another night of offense, and that’s not even mentioning the fact that Connor McDavid is yet to score a point in these games.
Oilers vs. Ducks Game 3 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -142 favorites to win on the road on the Moneyline today, while the Ducks come in with +120 odds at home. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 69% of straight bets on Edmonton to win, 69% of wagers on Anaheim to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 71% on the total’s over.
The percentage of bets backing the over has only increased with each passing game. I picked that side of the total in the first two games of the series and it cashed both times, but the -155 odds are the shortest of the three contests thus far. There’s less and less standalone value in that option, and while I still recommend it as a reliable pick in tonight’s matchup, there are other options to consider.
Bettors can snag over 7.5 goals as an alternate total at +145 odds, bringing better value than the typical game line tonight. Moreover, over 3.5 goals on Edmonton’s team total comes in at -130 odds. That might be a slightly better option than either of the other two picks, especially since it’s only a matter of time before McDavid heats up. The last two games mark only the fifth time in his postseason career that the superstar has been held without a point in back-to-back appearances. The sample size on that is 98 total contests with 150 points in that span (44G/106A). He’s bound to start scoring soon, and once he does, this Oilers offense will only look more formidable.
