The Magic were the only road team to get a win in Game 1 of the NBA Playoffs over the weekend, going to Detroit and earning a wire-to-wire victory as 8.5-point underdogs. The general strategy in this situation is to back the higher-seeded home team in Game 2 to bounce-back and even the series — which 74% of the money is doing by laying 8.5 points with Detroit on DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, Orlando has done extremely well in this matchup in the past, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Despite Detroit attempting twice as many free throws in Game 1 (38 to 19), the Magic held the Pistons to just 40% shooting from the field. Orlando’s Game 1 win was the 14th time it has beaten Detroit in the last 17 meetings, including three of the last four matchups this season.
Over the last four meetings, the Pistons have not scored more than 109 points, including the game they won. Orlando’s size seems to create problems for Detroit scoring and rebounding the ball, which I don’t expect to change. If you trust the spot historically in the NBA, the Pistons most likely find a way to even the series up 1-1 on Wednesday night. However, if you trust the recent data in this matchup, Detroit’s success won’t come easy.
I think the Magic can hang around in this game once again. I’ll split my bet in half and play two angles here — backing the Magic +8.5 and trusting their defense with a play on Pistons team total under 113.5.
NBA Pick: Pistons Team Total UNDER 113.5 (-105)
NBA Pick: Magic +8.5 (-105)
