Of the Western Conference playoff field, five of the eight teams still standing were part of the bracket last season. In theory, there should be less volatility surrounding those teams’ performances, as each should be prepared for the playoff spotlight.
Two of the teams who weren’t in the 2024-25 bracket are facing off against each other in the first round, with the No. 2 San Antonio Spurs making their first playoff appearance since 2018-19 and the No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers their first since 2020-21. San Antonio leads the series, 1-0, after winning Game 1, 111-98.
Portland will hope to tie the series up tonight headed back to the Moda Center with an 8:10 p.m. ET matchup in South Texas. Historically, higher seeds that win each of the first two games of the series go on to win it more than 90% of the time, so the series could effecitvely end tonight if the Spurs manage to pull off a win.
Both teams should have a mostly full squad available. The only player on the Trail Blazers’ injury report is point guard Damian Lillard, who’s been out all season with the Achilles tear that he suffered in the 2025 playoffs, and San Antonio will only be without deep reserve guard Jordan McLaughlin.
The Spurs are 11.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-650 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 219.5. Portland is +470 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs preview, prediction
Despite losing, the Trail Blazers felt pretty confident coming out of Game 1, as after a slow start, they more or less played San Antonio even in the second half. Deni Avdija, who’s been Portland’s leading man all season and will likely finish either second or third in Most Improved Player voting, had a dominant playoff debut, scoring 30 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, and Scoot Henderson added 18 points and three assists of his own. The Trail Blazers’ other three starters shot terribly, as did sixth man Shaedon Sharpe; with some regression to the mean, Portland should have a chance in Game 2.
Of course, the Trail Blazers will have to deal with Victor Wembanyama, who was named the first-ever unanimous Defensive Player of the Year on Monday and has an outside chance of claiming MVP as well. Wembanyama proved unafraid of the moment, dropping 35 points in Game 1 and setting a new franchise record for most points in a playoff debut. However, San Antonio’s other starters were less prepared; Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell combined to shoot just nine-for-26 from the field. If Wembanyama’s shot goes cold — something that is wont to happen occasionally — the Spurs’ performance wasn’t infallible.
Trail Blazers at Spurs pick, best bet
The battle between two young, defensive-oriented big men went Wembanyama’s way. While both Portland and San Antonio did an excellent job limiting attempts in the paint and accuracy on such shots, the Spurs have been slightly better all season. Though both teams went 16-for-25 (64.0%) in the restricted area, San Antonio held the Trail Blazers to just five-for-16 (31.3%) in the non-restricted paint during Game 1 and went eight-for-19 (42.0%) from that range offensively. Given Wembanyama’s dominance as a defender in the non-restricted paint, that advantage is probably sustainable, especially since Portland finished more accurately in Game 1 than it did during the regular season and the Spurs less accurately.
San Antonio also won the rebounding battle by seven in Game 1, a critical factor in a series between two of the league’s best rebounding teams. During the regular season, the teams finished sixth and seventh in total rebounding percentage, with Wembanyama leading the league in defensive rebounding percentage and the Trail Blazers’ Donovan Clingan leading the league in offensive rebounding percentage. That could even out somewhat in Game 2, but the ball security factor could flip; Portland won the turnover battle in Game 1 but was the league’s most turnover-prone team during the regular season. The Spurs also drew more fouls, limiting Avdija to just six free throw attempts. The Trail Blazers’ ability to minimize that edge with their contact-drawing abilities could be a critical factor in Game 2.
San Antonio won in part because its three-point shooting was excellent. In total, it went 15-for-33 from beyond the arc, hitting six of its 15 wide-open threes and eight of its 15 with the nearest defender between four and six feet away. That’s bound to regress at some point, and the fact that the Spurs gave up six more wide-open attempts than Portland did is some cause for concern. The Trail Blazers have less natural shooting talent — they’ve finished in the bottom five in three-point percentage in each of the last two regular seasons — but they could benefit enough from shooting luck normalization to keep the game tight.
Ultimately, San Antonio has the defenders to throw at Avdija, and Wembanyama does an excellent job contesting shots without fouling, limiting Avdija’s overall impact. The Spurs should also have a fairly significant home-court advantage, given the atmosphere their fans were able to create for Game 1. Portland matches up pretty well, and it’s likely to cover the spread, but San Antonio’s advantages are comfortable enough for it to survive a reversal of fortune.
