Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate: Jose Ramirez, Jo Adell and Munetaka Murakami.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Jose Ramirez 1+ Home Run (+391)
It’s early, but the fact that the Guardians have hit the eighth-most home runs (25) in baseball is notable, especially for a team that has struggled with run production as long as Cleveland has. However, it is not surprising that Jose Ramirez is at the center of that power surge, entering play on Tuesday with six long balls, a 93rd percentile expected wOBA (.417) and a 92nd percentile expected slugging rate (.569). Ramirez has been a 40/40 threat each of the past two seasons, and the veteran seems well on his way to flirting with the mark again in 2026.
Now, ideally, we’d be backing Ramirez against a left-handed opponent, but the switch-hitter doesn’t really have a “weakness” at the plate. He’s that good. I’m also not going to complain at all about the matchup. Injuries have forced the Astros to convert Ryan Weiss into a starter, something the 29-year-old was doing last year in Korea. However, Weiss has not found much success since re-joining MLB. In 14.2 innings of work, the RHP has managed a 6.75 ERA, surrendering four home runs and a fifth percentile opponent hard hit rate (54.5%). Heck, even if Ramirez doesn’t get to Weiss, Houston’s relievers have conceded more long balls per nine than any other bullpen (1.89). Woof.
Jo Adell 1+ Home Run (+372)
Look, Adell and Mike Trout (+368) basically have the exact same odds to go deep tonight, so I wouldn’t blame you if you’d rather side with the no-doubt, first-ballot Hall of Fame asset. But let’s not undersell Adell’s pop. The former 10th-overall pick had a breakout campaign in 2025, swatting 37 home runs with a .249 ISO and a .365 expected wOBA. This season, Adell’s been the Angels’ most dangerous hitter when the club is facing a left-handed pitcher, as the outfielder is slashing .370/.452/.704 in his 27 plate appearances within the split. In fact, Adell’s .738 expected slugging percentage versus southpaws is the sixth-highest mark in baseball among players with at least 20 PAs.
The lefty in question on Tuesday? None other than Patrick Corbin, who might be making his last appearance at the MLB level for some time. Trey Yesavage is making his second rehab start in Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and if all goes well, the rookie phenom will be back in Toronto’s rotation next week. That should squeeze out Corbin, who has managed to give up five opponent barrels in just 9.2 innings of work in 2026. I guess this is my way of saying don’t let this opportunity go to waste. Corbin’s ERA is well over 5.00 since the pandemic. He’s simply over the hill.
Munetaka Murakami 1+ Home Run (+404)
The White Sox will face the Diamondbacks in Arizona this evening, with Merrill Kelly set to take the mound. The right-hander has been one of the more under-appreciated starters the past half-decade, yet I’m worried we’re beginning to see some cracks in the foundation at the age of 37. Kelly made his first outing of 2026 last Tuesday, giving up a pair of earned runs over 5.1 innings against the Orioles. However, if you look closer, there are some clear red flags. Kelly walked more opponents (4) than he struck out (3), and he also allowed three barrels on only 17 batted ball events. Add in a continued dip in velocity, and you’ve got the formula for home runs.
As for Murakami, he’s a threat to go deep in any at-bat — he just needs to make contact. To wit, the Japanese import combines a first percentile whiff rate (41.7%) with a 99th percentile expected wOBA on batted ball events (.602). There’s literally no in-between. Murakami is Rob Deer. He’s Adam Dunn. He’s Kyle Schwarber. It can be a frustrating profile, but it’s certainly one with a lot of home run upside.
