National League contenders kick off another series Monday night, as the Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field.
Philadelphia (8–13, 4th NL East) ended its homestand with five straight losses, dropping back-to-back games to the Cubs before getting swept by the Braves. Meanwhile, Chicago (12–9, 4th NL Central) has won five straight games since falling in last week’s series opener with Philadelphia, riding high from a three-game sweep of the Mets on the North Side.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got a rematch between veteran right-handers. As seen on April 14 — a 10–4 Cubs win — Aaron Nola is tabbed to start for the Phillies against Cubs hurler Colin Rea.
First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Chicago enters as a slight -115 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Philadelphia sits at -105 on the moneyline. The total is set at O/U 7.5 runs.
Phillies vs. Cubs Preview
Philadelphia Phillies
Things have taken a turn for the worse in Philadelphia. The reigning NL East champs have dropped five straight games and are currently liable for the worst run differential in MLB (-38).
The star-studded Phillies offense has been a shell of its former self, ranking 23rd leaguewide in wOBA (.305), 24th in wRC+ (88), and 27th in total runs scored (75). Kyle Schwarber continues to mash, while Bryce Harper remains elite — unless you ask Phillies president Dave Dombrowski. The rest of the lineup, however, hasn’t followed.
It certainly hasn’t helped that Philadelphia’s pitching staff has been painstakingly unlucky. While the Phillies own MLB’s third-worst ERA at a bloated 4.84, they’ve gotten tagged for the highest BABIP in the majors at a scorching .353. A byproduct of misfortune and sloppy defense, the club ranks fourth in both xERA (.3.48) and FIP (3.34), while also topping the majors in xFIP (3.22).
On Monday, they’ll bank on a turnaround from veteran right-hander Aaron Nola. The former All-Star has posted a 4.03 ERA (4.09 xERA) with a 1.30 WHIP across his first four starts of the season. In his latest outing, Nola surrendered three earned runs across five innings with five strikeouts and a pair of walks against the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs
Despite minimal early returns from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, and Michael Busch, the Cubs have surprisingly had one of the top offenses in baseball. The club has scored the league’s eighth-most runs, while ranking fifth in wOBA (.334) and fourth in wRC+ (111).
The catalyst? Nico Hoerner. The two-time Gold Glover has caught fire at the plate, hitting .325 with a .920 OPS and three home runs — currently tied for the MLB lead with 21 RBIs. Chicago has also received 10 combined homers from Dansby Swanson (4) and Ian Happ (6).
While the Cubs’ hot bats have undoubtedly fueled the five-game winning streak, the pitching staff has also stepped up to keep opposing clubs at bay. Chicago hurlers have shoved to the tune of a 2.19 ERA during their recent surge.
The torrid stretch began against the Phillies on April 14, when veteran right-hander Colin Rea delivered six masterful innings of bulk relief. He scattered three earned runs on four hits while racking up five strikeouts in the winning effort. He enters Monday’s game with a 3.63 ERA (3.61 xERA) and 0.98 WHIP over four appearances (one start), sitting in the league’s 92nd percentile with a 37.8% chase rate behind a dastardly slider.
Phillies vs. Cubs Pick, Best Bet
We’ve seen how this pitching matchup turned out the first time, and we’ve seen how the teams have fared since. The Phillies have spiraled out of control, while the Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball. Now, they run it back at Wrigley Field — handing Chicago a golden opportunity to snatch its sixth straight victory.
