The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves are getting rather familiar with each other. The teams faced off in both the 2023 and 2024 playoffs, with each team winning one series, and they’re currently amid a battle in the first round. Denver leads the series, 1-0, after winning 116-105 in Game 1.
The Timberwolves will attempt to tie the series up tonight in Denver when Game 2 tips off at 10:40 p.m. ET. Minnesota would dramatically increase its chances of pulling off the series upset with a win, while history suggests that the Nuggets’ chances of winning should increase to north of 90% if they take a 2-0 lead.
Both teams have pretty clean injury reports. Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards (knee) is listed as questionable, but he’s expected to play. Meanwhile, Peyton Watson (hamstring) remains out for Denver.
The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-285 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 231.5. Minnesota is +230 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s pivotal matchup.
Nikola Jokić Triple-Double (-143)
Jokić has an implied triple-double probability (58.85%) more than four times as likely as the player on today’s slate with the next-shortest odds, but even that arguably might undersell his ability to stuff the stat sheet. This season, he became the first player in NBA history to lead the league in both rebounds per game and assists per game. Denver ended its season hot, going 15-2 in its last 17 games, and in that span, Jokić had 10 triple-doubles in 16 games, including a period of seven in nine starts. He then had a triple-double in Game 1 despite not playing all that well overall.
To be fair, it’s not like the Timberwolves have an awful defense. They allowed the 12th-fewest points, 16th-fewest rebounds, and 10th-fewest assists per game during the regular season, and they limited Jokić to a mere double-double once, when he fell one assist shy on March 1. However, that still leaves three meetings during the regular season in which Jokić did record a triple-double, and he’s clearly one of the few players in the league who relishes the challenge of going against four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, recording 13 points and eight assists when guarded by him in Game 1 and a combined 77 points and 32 assists on 29-for-44 shooting against him and Julius Randle during the regular season.
Julius Randle 20+ Points (+103)
Though Edwards will likely play tonight, he didn’t look anywhere near 100% in Game 1, as his knee was clearly giving him issues. But in case he doesn’t play up to his standard, Minnesota has enough offense to make up for a hobbled Edwards. Randle has been a very solid second option all season, playing in each of the first 79 games and posting 40 20-plus-point games. He ended the season with at least 20 points in four of his final five games of the season, and though Edwards missed two of those four performances, he also reached that threshold 26 times in 60 games with Edwards also active.
The Nuggets have the worst defense of any remaining team, finishing the regular season 21st in defensive rating, though they can take some solace in the 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers, the only team to win a title after posting a bottom-10 defense during the regular season. Randle should be in a position to thrive; he had at least 20 points in three of the teams’ four regular season matchups, including two of the three in which Edwards also played. He struggled in his possessions when guarded by Jokić, but that wasn’t as much of an issue during the regular season, when he shot 16-for-28 against the three-time MVP. He also shot an uncharacteristic one-for-four on wide-open shots. Assuming some regression to the mean, Randle should be in line to increase his scoring output by four relative to his Game 1 effort.
Tim Hardaway Jr. 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+152)
Choosing bench options is always a risk in the postseason, since playoff rotations tighten and starters typically play heavier minutes. However, in Game 1, Hardaway played just over 24 minutes, almost exactly in line with his average between Aaron Gordon’s return from injury on March 6 and the end of the regular season. In that span, Hardaway — a Sixth Man of the Year finalist — converted 41.7% of his three-pointers, making at least three in nine of his 18 games. He only went one-for-three on Saturday night, but given that he attempted at least four in all but seven games during the regular season, his usage rate is likely to rebound some.
He represents a strong value option despite the fact that the Timberwolves were one of the league’s best three-point defenses during the regular season. During the regular season, Minnesota allowed the second-fewest long range tries per game and the 13th-lowest percentage on such looks, but it really struggled to close out on Denver’s shooters in Game 1, giving up the second-most wide-open threes among the 12 teams for which stats are available. During the regular season, Hardaway canned his uncontested triples at a 49.5% clip, and he made at least three threes in all four of his games against the Timberwolves.
