Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: Matt Olson, Kyle Stowers and Teoscar Hernandez.
Let’s break them down.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+413)
It’s not that Olson’s been bad the past two seasons, it’s just that he’s failed to live up to the expectations of his 54 home run campaign back in 2023. However, things seem to be trending back in that direction so far in 2026. Across 99 plate appearances, Olson is in possessions of a massive .291 ISO and a 159 wRC+. That’s equated out to five home runs in the month of April and an 11-game hitting streak that was snapped in Sunday’s victory over the Phillies. In short, the bat has been hot.
I expect Olson will stay in the groove in tonight’s matchup with the Nationals, as he and the rest of the Braves’ lineup will get to face Jake Irvin. As much as I could sit here are regurgitate fancy stats on why Irvin has underwhelmed since the start of 2025, let’s just cut straight to the chase. Going back to the beginning of last season, only two pitchers have surrendered at least 40 opponent home runs: Irvin and Zack Littell. In fact, in 2025, opposing LHBs averaged 2.32 long balls per nine off Irvin. That’s a lot of souvenirs.
Kyle Stowers 1+ Home Run (+339)
Welcome back, Kyle Stowers. A hamstring issue forced the All-Star to the IL for the first four weeks of the season, but Stowers returned to action on Sunday, immediately picking up a pair of hits in his four plate appearances. Remember, Stowers had a breakout year in 2025 after being traded to the Marlins from the Orioles back at the 2024 deadline. In 457 PAs, the outfielder slashed .288/.368/.544 with a 149 wRC+. Stowers was even better when you isolate his numbers solely against right-handed pitching, as he managed a .299 average, a .302 ISO and a .980 OPS within the split. Seems like Miami will be happy to have him return to action.
As it pertains to Monday night, Michael McGreevy is a righty. He’s also due for some serious regression. Putting aside a .188 BABIP or a 87.0% strand rate, McGreevy’s simply getting hit hard far too often for a pitcher with a 2.49 ERA. The former first-round pick sports an 11th percentile opponent barrel rate through four starts (14.9%), along with just a second percentile whiff rate (13.8%). That’s too much hard contact. That’s too much contact of any kind, really. As you can imagine, McGreevy struggled quite a bit with LHBs in 2025, giving up a .388 wOBA within the split along with 2.03 home runs per nine. Those issues have yet to translate into 2026, but I expect that to change very, very soon.
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+361)
I know that Jose Quintana’s only made two starts so far in 2026, but goodness has the veteran southpaw shown some red flags in that small sample. For the purposes of this betting market, I’m not even talking about the 21.6% walk rate, either. For the entirety of his career, Quintana’s found success almost exclusively in suppressing opponent hard hit rate and launch angle. However, nearly 20% of the batted ball events that the lefty has surrendered as a member of the Rockies have been barrels. That’s no way to live at Coors Field, and it’s certainly no way to live against a Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in ISO (.205).
Hernandez is far from a perfect hitter, but the 33-year-old has mustered at least 25 home runs in the last six non-COVID seasons, and his career .223 ISO suggests he’s been one of the game’s most consistent power bats the past half-decade — especially against LHPs like Quintana. Hernandez’s biggest flaw is his tendency to strikeout, but that shouldn’t be a problem in matchup with Quintana, as the soft-tossing lefty currently sports a first percentile strikeout rate (8.1%). It’s the perfect spot for some fireworks.
