Well, game one of this series didn’t play out exactly as we expected, now did it? The first-round series between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild kicked off in Texas at the American Airlines Center back on Saturday as the visitors took a dominant 6-1 victory to claim a 1-0 lead in the series. Dropping Game 1s is nothing new for Dallas, but will the group be able to punch back after getting run out of its own building to start the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Here’s a Wild vs. Stars Game 2 prediction and pick for Monday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wild vs. Stars Game 2 prediction, preview
To say Game 1 of this series was a rout would be something of an understatement. The Wild entered the AAC and thoroughly asserted themselves from the opening puck drop, taking a 1-0 lead into the first intermission before pouring on three more goals in the first seven minutes of the second period. With a 4-0 lead, they could’ve coasted to an easy win but more than made up for a singular Stars goal with another two of their own, bringing the final score to 6-1 after the empty-netter to end the contest. The dust settled with a slim shot margin of 29 SOG for Minnesota and 28 for Dallas, but a 2-for-4 performance on the power play and a staggering 17 blocked shots from the Wild showed dominance in all phases.
It was a typical performance for Kirill Kaprizov (1G/2A) and Matt Boldy (2G/1A), and while Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber finished with just one assist each, the latter was a team-high +4. The star of the show, surprisingly, was Joel Eriksson Ek with a pair of power-play goals and an assist himself. Whether he can repeat that big performance tonight is uncertain, but his impact on the man advantage was difficult to deny.
For all the excellent moments and team-centric play of the Wild in Game 1, this outcome was simultaneously shocking and unsurprising at the same time. The Stars are no stranger to coming up flat in Game 1s — this one marked Dallas’ ninth loss in its last 11 series openers, with the only two wins since 2022 coming in the second round and Western Conference Final last postseason. In fact, the Stars lost their Game 1 to open the playoffs last season… at home to the Avalanche… by a score of 5-1. Embarrassment happens because this league is unpredictable, but this group does seem to use it as fuel.
Still, the manner in which the Stars came out so flat was shocking. Perhaps it was due to both teams performing at polar opposite ends of the spectrum as Minnesota emerged from the tunnel looking to figuratively (and literally) punch its opponent in the mouth from the jump, while Dallas didn’t seem energized until the lead seemed insurmountable midway through the second frame. Will we get that again tonight?
In short, probably not. For some stats at a glance, the Stars scored 3.33 goals per game during the regular season and were fifth in high-danger chances. That they were held to just one such opportunity in the first 30 minutes on Saturday and only three in total feels like more of an aberration rather than a sign of a looming collapse, though the Wild defense is quite formidable. Sloppy penalties were certainly an issue as well. You simply can’t put this Minnesota attack on the power play four times and expect to come out the other side of the penalty kill unscathed. Dallas needs to clean that up some here, but it’s also unlikely that its own kill unit is rendered almost entirely ineffective in the fashion that played out to start the series.
Wild vs. Stars Game 2 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Stars as -142 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline today, while the Wild come in with +120 odds on the road. The game total sits at just 5.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 73% of straight bets on Dallas to win, 64% of wagers on Minnesota to cover the +1.5 puck line, and 77% on the total’s over.
The Stars are now 2-3 against the Wild overall this season, but frankly, that may not matter. We mentioned Dallas’ poor record in Game 1s earlier in this article. As it turns out, the franchise is 6-2 in Game 2s (specifically after losing the opener) over the course of that sample. The Stars also went 5-3 in those series, though that’s getting a little bit ahead of ourselves.
This team is far too talented to get blown out at home again like they did this weekend. Jason Robertson just put forth one of the best seasons of his career, Mikko Rantanen is probably the best player in this game not named Kaprizov, Wyatt Johnston remains a killer on the power play, and the depth on the roster has an edge over that of the Wild. Much chatter blames netminder Jake Oettinger for the loss in Game 1, but he also saw very little help from the blue line in front of him and was hung out to dry by the penalty kill. A couple of shots he let trickle in were practically impossible to stop. Last season, he played poorly in Game 1 against Colorado and proceeded to stand on his head more often than not for the remainder of the first two rounds, serving as a primary reason the Stars even advanced out of round one.
Everything that could’ve gone wrong for Dallas took a nosedive to open the series. Now down a game at home, there’s a fire beneath this roster, which has proven its ability to strike back time after time. Beyond that, Minnesota’s rookie netminder Jesper Wallstedt played a great first playoff game but hasn’t faced this Stars team at the peak of its powers with everything clicking in the postseason. Expect an even series after tonight.
