The Denver Nuggets (1-0) will host the Minnesota Timberwolves (0-1) for game two of the first round in the West tonight at 10:30 PM EST. The Nuggets have listed Peyton Watson as Out, while the Timberwolves have listed Anthony Edwards as Questionable.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 230.5 points.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction, preview
Denver looked like the calmer team in game one. Not that we’re particularly surprised, because after all, the Nuggets finished the regular season 54-28, won 12 straight heading into the playoffs, and boasted the league’s best offense. They posted 122.6 OFFRTG, 117.4 DEFRTG, and a +5.2 NETRTG, while averaging 122.1 PPG on 49.6% shooting with 29.0 APG. More importantly for this series, Denver took three of the four regular-season meetings against the Timberwolves, including a thriller Christmas overtime game in which Nikola Jokic lit up Minnesota for a massive 56. The regular-season stuff matters a little less now, but one trend carried straight into Saturday: if Denver can turn the game into the Jokic-Murray orchestration they’re looking for, Minnesota has a hard time pushing this game in the direction they want it to go. In game one, Jokic had a 25-13-11 triple double while Murray scored 30, and Denver survived a rough start by owning the foul line (Murray went 16/16 on free throws) and settling into its two-man game. The Nuggets only shot 28% from three and still won by 11 because they got 33 free throws, committed just 14 turnovers, and found enough supplementary scoring from Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Cameron Johnson. They also won relatively comfortably without Peyton Watson, who has been a tremendous piece for the Nuggets this season. It would’ve been nice to see how Watson would contribute to this team in the postseason, but we have to just wait and see.
Denver’s game one plan was to let Jokic coast a bit in the first half with Murray carrying the majority of the scoring. We saw him bricking all eight of his attempts from deep but he managed to stay aggressive and got to the line a whopping 16 times. The second half had Denver reverting to its preferred style, with Jokic organizing a bit more. It helps that Minnesota missed 14 of its first 16 shots in the third quarter. Denver also got a nice lift from Bruce Brown, who put up 8 points, seven rebounds, and an impressive five steals in just 21 minutes.
Minnesota is still obviously very live in this series, but we saw some of their areas of concern in game one. The Wolves went 49-33 in the regular season with a 116.8 OFFRTG, 113.5 DEFRTG, and roughly a +3.3 NETRTG, while averaging 118.0 PPG, 44.1 RPG, 26.1 APG, 37.0% from three, and 5.8 blocks per game. They are not built exactly like last year’s team. Chris Finch still wants size, switchability, and a defense that can wall off the easy stuff, but this version has leaned more on Julius Randle’s creation next to Anthony Edwards and on Jaden McDaniels’ offensive growth rather than just asking Edwards to torch teams by himself. While Minnesota did beat Denver once in March while piling up 33 assists, it’s an uphill climb for them in this series. They actually won points in the paint 54-42 and shot better from the field than Denver, but they lost the free-throw battle 30-14, went through the aforementioned long third-quarter drought, and only got 22 points on 7-of-19 shooting from Anthony Edwards. Edwards is officially questionable again tonight with right knee injury maintenance, but I’d count on him playing.
Minnesota will continue trying to establish early ball movement and Gobert screen actions. Edwards nursing an injury isn’t ideal by any means, but the series doesn’t really start until we’re back in Minnesota, and if the Wolves can steal one tonight, it would be a huge win for them.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves pick, best Bet
Best Bet: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-258)
The Nuggets winning game one with Jamal Murray only shooting 7/22 from the field bodes well for their chances of winning tonight’s game in Denver, if not the rest of the series. Anthony Edwards doesn’t look 100%, and the Nuggets’ offense is a well oiled machine that’s going to efficiently pick apart defenses as long as Nikola Jokic sits at the helm.
