Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Monday’s full slate of MLB action.
Astros at Guardians NRFI (-115)
The Astros are in Cleveland to start a new series against the Guardians on Monday night as they give the ball to Spencer Arrighetti to take on Slade Cecconi. Arrighetti comes in riding a two-game NRFI streak, while Cecconi hasn’t given up a run in any of his last four starts in the first inning.
The Guardians have the fifth-highest NFRI rate of any team in baseball this season, converting 15 of their 23 games (65.2%). The Astros are on the other end of the spectrum with the lowest NRFI rate in baseball, but the pitching matchup sets up well for them to regress to the average a little bit on Monday.
Ceconni has not allowed a run in the first inning of 86.4% of his career starts and all four of his starts this season. Last season, he only allowed a run in the first inning in four of his 23 starts for an 82.6% NRFI rate. He’ll have a tough task keeping the Astros in check, but he has a good chance of getting through the first without issue based on his past success.
On the other side, Arrighetti got through five of his seven first innings without allowing a run last season and also didn’t allow a first-inning run in his first start of this season. The 26-year-old righty allowed just three hits and one run in six innings against the Rockies, and he’ll look to build on that momentum and keep his spot in the Astros’ banged-up rotation.
With both starters so solid in the first, getting this NRFI play at close to even money is a solid value to start the NRFI slate.
Orioles at Royals NRFI (-115)
The Orioles and Royals have been NRFI stalwarts this season, and this series in Kansas City has a chance to be very low-scoring overall, especially early. The Orioles are tied for the highest NRFI rate in the majors at 77.3% (17 of 22 games), while the Royals are barely behind them at 72.7% (16 of 22 games).
The Royals give the ball to veteran Seth Lugo for the series opener, and Lugo has not given up a run in the firs inning of 100 of his 127 career starts (78.7%). He has a six-game NRFI streak that is the second-highest of any probable pitcher in Monday’s 10 games.
He’ll be opposed by Kyle Bradish, who has a four-game NRFI streak of his own and has an even higher NRFI rate than Lugo in his career at 81.7% (58 of 71 starts).
Neither starter has allowed a run in the first inning this season, and neither team has scored many runs in the first inning. Aside from the argument that they may be overdue for some regression, all the trends point to this being a smash NRFI spot, especially with the odds close to even money.
Phillies at Cubs NRFI (-135)
The Phillies were swept by the Braves at home over the weekend and went just 2-7 on their nine-game homestand. That included a three-game set against the Cubs, and now they’ll visit Wrigley for the second half of their home-and-home series. While the weather in the Windy City is always a wildcard, it looks like the wind will be right to left not blowing in or out, creating fairly neutral conditions.
The Phillies will look to veteran Aaron Nola to be the stopper, and he’s been strong in the first innings of his starts this year, not allowing a run in the first frame in each of his last three starts. The Cubs have the fourth-highest NRFI rate in the MLB, and Nola was clean in the first two innings against them in his last start, before giving up three runs on eight hits over five innings.
On the other side, the Cubs give the ball to veteran Colin Rea, who worked six strong innings against the Phillies in his last game to help get the win over Nola. He didn’t actually start that game, working after opener Riley Martin, but Martin threw a scoreless first inning before Rea took over right after him. Rea did make one official start this season and did not give up a run in the first inning. He enters this outing with a four-game NRFI streak.
The temperatures for this contest are forecast to be under 50, so it should be pitcher-favorable weather for this matchup between two veterans with solid NRFI track records.
