All but one series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun by now. Tonight, the final one gets rolling as well when the Anaheim Ducks head to Rogers Place for Game 1 against the Edmonton Oilers. The Pacific Division was weak this year, but this should still be a high-octane series with plenty of scoring as these teams go toe-to-toe in the best-of-seven split.
Here’s a Ducks vs. Oilers Game 1 prediction and pick for Monday’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ducks vs. Oilers Game 1 prediction, preview
This series should be intriguing in that both teams have offenses that can score in a hurry and little stability to protect the net at the other end. If there’s one stat to know before puck drop, it’s that the Ducks and Oilers combined for 28 goals in just three regular-season meetings this year. Yep, you read that right. There were nearly 10 goals scored per game in that small sample.
With that in mind, we’re hammering the over on a nightly basis as well as “yes” on the 10-goal-game prop in the series market. With our pick practically made, though, we still need to dive into some numbers ahead of tonight’s Game 1.
Edmonton enters as the higher seed with home-ice advantage in the series. After getting to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons, the Oilers fell short of even the 100-point mark due to goalie issues throughout the year. A swap of Stuart Skinner and Tristan Jarry certainly didn’t work out, and now, Connor Ingram starts with an .899 SV% and 2.60 GAA. While the Oil do give up 3.23 goals per game, the offense can certainly make up for that with its own production. Led by Art Ross winner Connor McDavid and his 138 points (48G/90A), the team averages 3.44 goals per game and has an NHL-leading PP% of 30.6%. While Leon Drasaitl (97P; 35G/62A) has missed extended time with an injury, he’s expected to return to the lineup for Game 1 barring a setback. Evan Bouchard also paces all NHL defensemen with 95 points (21G/74A), plus supporting talents like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman remain standouts.
Anaheim comes into this one at third in the Pacific Division after tallying 92 points, just one shy of Edmonton. However, the Ducks have a goal differential of -15 and don’t have near the top-end talent of their opponent. They average 3.23 goals per contest thanks to six 50-point producers, two of whom recorded at least 60 points. No Ducks skater reached even 70 points on the campaign though with Cutter Gauther (69P; 41G/28A) and Leo Carlsson (67P; 29G/38A) leading the way. Bennett Sennecke hit 60 points (23G/37A), with the trio of Jackson LaCombe (58), Troy Terry (57) and Chris Kreider (50) all at 50+. The Anaheim power play is one of the worst in the league at just 18.6% and the defense is even worse — with 3.51 goals allowed per game, the Ducks are fourth-to-last in the stat and are sixth lowest in PK% at 76.4% as well. With a 3.10 GAA and .888 SV%, Lukas Dostal’s season in net has been quite rough.
Ducks vs. Oilers Game 1 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -192 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline today, while the Ducks come in with +160 odds on the road. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Betting splits show 88% of straight bets on Edmonton to win, 65% of wagers on the Oilers to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 70% on the total’s over.
Again, the over feels like an easy pick tonight. Over the three games these teams played against each other in the regular season, those finished with final scores of 7-4, 6-5 and 4-2. The over on 6.5 goals cashed twice over that span and the Oilers took the first and last meetings. The impending return of Draisaitl only improves the outlook for offense in regard to Edmonton’s attack, and while Ingram’s numbers in March and April are actually quite solid, he has a 3.64 GAA over his very short postseason track record of four games back in 2022 with the Nashville Predators. The lights may get to him tonight, but he could settle in through the rest of the series.
