The Lightning will play host to the Canadiens in Game 1 of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with first puck drop set for 5:45 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a -185 Moneyline favorite, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Here’s a Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 1 prediction and pick for today’s NHL Playoffs action.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 1 prediction, preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
At one point, the Lightning were considered the hottest team in the NHL after winning 20-of-22 games during December and January. The club evened out a bit more following the Olympic break, posting a 13-12-2 record across its final 27 games of the season. Part of that was Victor Hedman leaving the team due to personal reasons, but he is expected to rejoin the team soon. Regardless, the Lightning are loaded with talent such as Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel. Plus, they will have the goaltending advantage with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who ranks fourth in goals saved above expected and 13th in SV% above expected.
While the club came back down to Earth over the back half of the season, its metrics are still elite. On the season, the Bolts rank second in 5v5 goals per 60, fifth in 5v5 xGoals% and eighth in 5v5 goals against per 60. Tampa Bay scored the fourth-most and allowed the third-fewest goals in the NHL, which seems like a good recipe for a playoff team. It also ranked third in PK%, though its 17th-ranked power play was a bit underwhelming, given the overall talent on the roster. The Bolts ranked fourth in both Corsi% and high-danger chances, so their opponents will have a hard time controlling the puck and limiting quality chances.
Montreal Canadiens
What a season it has been for the Canadiens and their fans. Nick Suzuki eclipsed 100 points and is very likely going to win the Selke Trophy. Cole Caufield scored 51 goals, and Lane Hutson is already one of the best offensive-focused defenseman in the league. The Habs were elite following the break, posting a 16-7-2 record, while averaging 3.4 goals and allowing 2.8 goals per game. Another young piece, Jakub Dobes, has found his footing in the NHL, too, posting a 2.5 GAA and .916 SV% across 16 games since returning from the break. On the season, he ranks eighth in goals saved above expected, and this postseason will be a true test to see if he can become a franchise cornerstone.
Montreal is littered with talent and received offensive production from virtually all four forward lines consistently. The club dealt with below-average goaltending for much of the season before Dobes got hot, but the offensive side of things never missed a step. The Habs ranked seventh in 5v5 goals per 60 and were even better at even strength, ranking fifth in 5v5 goals per 60. Montreal’s defense really needs to show up as it did in the final two meetings against Tampa Bay. The club allowed the third-most high-danger chances in the NHL and will have a 24-year-old playing playoff hockey for the first time in his career.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 1 pick, best bet
57% of the handle and 72% of the bets on DraftKings Sportsbook lie with Lightning Moneyline (-185), but I am really feeling the Canadiens here. Montreal held the third-best road record in the NHL this season and handled Tampa Bay in the past two meetings, outscoring the club, 6-2. The under is pretty enticing, too, as I am expecting a solid goaltender battle between Vasilevskiy and Dobes, but I’m backing the vibes of the young and exciting Habs core.
