The Spurs are hosting the Trail Blazers on Sunday for Game 1 of this first round playoff series. On DraftKings Sportsbook, San Antonio is favored by 11.5 points and this game carries a total of 221.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers preview
The Spurs had a sensational season, finishing No. 2 in the Western Conference at 62-20, which is the first time the franchise has won 60+ games in nine years. The Trail Blazers finished as the No. 7 seed at 42-40, marking their first playoff appearance in five years. Portland clinched the No. 7 seed by defeating the Suns 114-100 in a Play-In Tournament matchup this past Tuesday.
The Spurs and Trail Blazers met three times in the regular season and San Antonio took the season series 2-1. Notably, Victor Wembanyama missed all of those contests and Game 1 will be the first time he has faced Portland this season.
The superstar has been incredible and is a lock to finish top three in MVP voting. Wembanyama is averaging 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and a league-high 3.1 blocks per game. The big man leads the NBA in player net rating and the Spurs lead the league in net rating since the All-Star break with a 24-4 record. De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle also have had great seasons.
The only concern for the Spurs is that this is Wembanyama and Castle’s first time in the playoffs. Will their lack of experience show up at times? Probably. But that doesn’t mean this extremely talented and well-coached group can’t contend for a championship. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Spurs’ +500 odds to win the NBA Championship rank second only to the Thunder.
The Trail Blazers have two-time NBA champion Jrue Holiday at the helm, but outside of the veteran, this is also a very inexperienced playoff group. Most notably, this will be Deni Avdija’s playoff debut. That being said, the first-time All-Star has been outstanding this season and thriving heading into the postseason. Avdija is averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game, and in Tuesday’s Play-In win over the Suns, the forward was brilliant with 41 points, 12 assists and seven rebounds.
Avdija also thrived vs. the Spurs in the regular season, averaging 31.7 points, 8.0 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game in three matchups, but Wembanyama did miss these tilts, so San Antonio’s defense was much more vulnerable than usual. Another big stat line for Avdija is possible in Game 1, but it’s certainly going to be more of a challenge with Wembanyama in the middle. With the center on the floor, the Spurs own an elite 103.6 defensive rating per 100 possessions.
Since the All-Star break, the Trail Blazers are 15-11 and rank 14th in net rating. The club hangs its hat on the defensive end, ranking third in defensive rating, but Portland can struggle on the other side of the ball, ranking 23rd in offensive rating over this time. The Trail Blazers’ offensive woes are very concerning, especially in this matchup, and they are why they are a big underdog for Game 1 and this series.
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet
The Spurs are a dominant 32-8 at home this season and they should start their playoff run with a win in Game 1. Covering this 11.5-point spread is possible, but the Trail Blazers have covered in six of their last eight, so San Antonio -11.5 does feel slightly risky.
I prefer to back San Antonio -3.5 in the first quarter. The Spurs rank second in first quarter net rating and they are a league-best 53-30 ATS in the first quarter this season.
