The fourth seeded Lakers will host the fifth seeded Rockets tonight at 8:30 PM EST. This should be an explosive one between two aging superstars who have had their fair share of battles back in the day. They’re still top tier players and we’ll get to see them lock horns in a best of seven. Follow along here at DraftKings Network for coverage.
The Rockets are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 207.5 points.
Lakers vs. Rockets prediction, preview
Houston spent this season becoming more serious. The Rockets finished 52-30 as the West’s fifth seed, closed the regular season 9-1, and enter Game 1 tonight against the fourth seeded Lakers after ending last year’s playoff drought with a first-round exit. Houston is now trying to reach the second round for the first time since 2020. The numbers show a team with backbone: Houston posted a 118.6 OFFRTG, 113.2 DEFRTG, and +5.4 NETRTG. The Rockets were eighth in OFFRTG and allowed just 110.0 PPG, 24.5 opponent APG, and 48.6 opponent RPG. What Ime Udoka has done is pretty clear: this is not a free-flowing, pretty-passing offense. But it doesn’t need to be. Houston led the league in offensive rebound percentage at 34.8%, ranked fifth in points in the paint at 53.1 per game, and played at one of the league’s slowest tempos, 29th in pace. They took 24% of their shots in the last six seconds of the clock. Kevin Durant, who averaged 26.0 PPG in 78 games, gives Houston the clean bailout option it did not always have in earlier iterations of this team. Alperen Sengun still acts as the interior hub, while the wings, especially Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr., give the Rockets length, rebounding, and defensive pressure. Houston’s offense can look extremely clunky at times, but they do a good job wearing down teams. The big playoff question is whether that physical identity travels cleanly against a Lakers team that still finishes extremely well inside, and whether the Rockets’ high turnover rate, 15.7 per 100 possessions, gives away easy points in a series where set defense is one of their biggest advantages. Luckily for them, the Lakers will be without two of their three heads. Losing Luka Doncic is a massive blow to the Lakers’ chances of hanging around.
The Lakers went 53-29, earned home court as the West’s fourth seed, and from Feb. 28 through March 31 played arguably their best stretch of the year at 16-2. Unfortunately, the whole shape of the team changed when Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves were injured on April 2. JJ Redick’s second season looked, for long stretches, like the version the Lakers were trying to build: an elite inside-out offense around Luka and LeBron, with secondary creation from Reaves. Season-long, the Lakers posted a 118.2 OFFRTG, 116.4 DEFRTG, and +1.7 NETRTG. They also led the league in FG%, ranked first in two-point percentage, first in FTA/FGA, and led the league in field-goal percentage in the paint at 63.0%. The Lakers want pressure at the rim, paint finishing, and free throws more than pure three-point volume. Defensively, they are shaky. They allowed 55.5% opponent eFG%, 27.45 opponent APG, and 51.5 opponent points in the paint per game, which is not exactly the profile of a team eager to live in long, bruising half-court series. The injuries to this team have pushed LeBron James back into the number one option, a position that he himself has stated that he’s accustomed to. He averaged 20.9 PPG, 7.2 APG and 6.1 RPG this season, and the Lakers outscored opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions in his minutes without Doncic and Reaves. There will also be additional pressure on the Lakers’ role players such as Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, and Marcus Smart to step up, because without Luka and Reaves the Lakers lose a lot of juice.
Lakers vs. Rockets pick, best Bet
Best Bet: Houston Rockets Moneyline (-225)
The Lakers’ weak interior defense bodes poorly for their ability to clog easy buckets in the paint, where Houston has thrived all season. Without the explosive firepower of Luka Doncic, they aren’t well equipped to deal with a Rockets team that, sure is also missing Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, is relentless in the passing lanes and ferocious near the basket. The regular-season meetings leaned Lakers, 2-1, with Doncic scoring 76 points in the two March wins in Houston, which is relevant mostly because it underlines how different this matchup looks without him.
