All 30 MLB teams are on the scoreboard this Saturday with games spread throughout the afternoon and evening. Many of the afternoon games are a little chilly before some warmer games in Washington and Sacramento. The weather is always one of several important factors to consider for home run props. As we take a look at all the matchups on the board this Saturday, let’s swing for the fences and try to find some strong home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
By their nature, home run props are long shot plays, but when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more unlikely to not homer than go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s matchups: James Wood, Andy Pages and Zach Neto.
Top MLB Home Run Props
James Wood 1+ Home Run (+505)
From the afternoon wave, the two best homer spots are Sacramento and Washington. The Nationals are taking on Adrian Houser, who has been vulnerable to left-handed power hitters, which is why I like the value Wood brings to the afternoon matchup, with forecasts for temps near 80 and the wind blowing slightly out and right to left.
Houser has given up 11 runs on 20 hits in 16 innings over his first three starts with the Giants. He has only given up one homer, but he has a 42.4% hard-hit rate against him this season, and lefties like Wood are 13-for-34 with six doubles, a home run and a .471 wOBA against him this season. Last year, lefties hit eight of the 10 homers he allowed with a .351 wOBA against him.
On the strong side of those splits, Wood is off to a fast start after crushing six dingers in his first 20 games this season. He has a 64.7% hard-hit rate and an eye-popping 23.5% barrel rate that puts him in the top five in the majors in both categories. His average exit velocity of 96.0 miles per hour is also in the top five and makes him a huge threat to go deep if he gets anything he can drive, like this one that he sent out of Nationals Park on Friday night:
Andy Pages 1+ Home Run (+620)
After yesterday’s icy weather, Denver warms up on Saturday, making Coors Field a more homer-happy venue for the Dodgers. L.A. took the first game of the series, 7-1, and it’ll take on righty Ryan Feltner on Saturday.
Feltner has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits in just 12 1/3 innings over his first three starts this season and has served up three homers, all to right-handed hitters. Lefties are just 1-for-17 against him, but righties have hit .424 with an .848 SLG.
Those dramatic splits are why I’m leaning away from the Dodgers at shorter odds and taking a longshot play with Pages, who has started out the season swinging a hot bat. The 25-year-old righty is hitting .412 in his first 19 games with five homers, 21 RBIs and a .496 wOBA. He has a 58.8% hard-hit rate and 9.8% barrel rate, and he smashed four of his five homers against righties like Feltner.
Zach Neto 1+ Home Run (+386)
Neto is another righty taking on a righty in a good matchup on Saturday night as his Halos host German Marquez and the Padres. The Angels won the first game of the series, 8-0 behind another sparkling performance from Jose Soriano, and they will look to attack Marquez on Saturday night to continue their recent surge.
Neto has hit five homers on the season, including four against righties like Marquez. Marquez has given up five homers in just 13 innings while going 2-1 with a 5.54 ERA and a 53.3% hard-hit rate against him. Righties have hit two of those homers, and Marquez has struggled on all sides of most splits.
Neto’s most recent homer was just over a week ago in Cincinnati (see below), but he has continued to be a key contributor from the leadoff spot for the Angels. On the season, he’s hitting .247 with a 40.4% hard-hit rate. He had multiple hard-hit balls in each of his last two games, and he has the potential to take Marquez or part of the Padres’ pen deep on Saturday if he keeps making good contact. Last year, 19 of his 26 homers were against righties, and he had a .341 wOBA in the split.
