The playoff bracket is set as 16 teams start their quest to be crowned champion. The No. 3 Denver Nuggets. will face the No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference on Saturday, April 18. These franchises played each other in the 2023 and 2024 postseasons, with each team winning one series. You can check out a full series preview on DraftKings Network, but this article will focus on Game 1.
The Nuggets are 6.5-point favorites and -250 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves are +205 underdogs, with the game total set at 231.5.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the sixth seed in the Western Conference, holding a 49-33 record. They went 36-46 against the spread this season, and the game total remained under in 45 of their 82 games.
The Timberwolves average 118 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.
Anthony Edwards headlines the production, averaging 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 39.9% from three. Julius Randle adds 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, while Rudy Gobert contributes 10.9 points and 11.5 rebounds and leads the NBA with a 68.2% effective field goal percentage. Jaden McDaniels took a massive leap forward this year, improving his three-point percentage to 41.2% and adding 14.8 points per game.
The Denver Nuggets are in third place in the Western Conference with a 54-28 record. They went 44-38 against the spread this season, and the game total went over in an NBA-leading 52 regular-season games.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring by putting up 122.1 points per game. Denver also ranks first in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 116.9 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 21st in the league. They also rank 21st in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and third in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nikola Jokic headlines the production, scoring 27.7 points per game, and leading the NBA with 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists per game. Jamal Murray also had the best season of his career, earning his first All-Star appearance and posting averages of 25.4 points and 7.1 assists per game. Peyton Watson had a breakout season with averages of 14.6 points and 4.9 rebounds, while Aaron Gordon contributes 16.2 points and 5.8 rebounds of his own.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Best Bet
These teams faced off four times in the regular season, with the Nuggets winning three of the four matchups. Denver also covered the spread in all three victories. It is worth noting that Edwards missed the first matchup between these two teams.
Denver has the best offense in the league. There is a clear case for this being the deepest team of the Jokic era, as evidenced by the team going 11-6 while he was sidelined. This is also a matchup in which Jokic shined this year. While Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards to his name, the three-time MVP is averaging 35.8 points, 15 rebounds and 11.3 assists against Minnesota this year. Jokic has recorded 50+ combined points, rebounds, and assists in all three matchups.
The Nuggets have some legitimate defensive concerns, but their offense makes up for it. The Timberwolves may struggle to defend Denver as they don’t have the same defensive prowess as years past. Two seasons ago, they led the NBA in opponents’ points allowed and defensive rating, and last year, Minnesota ranked fifth in opponents’ points per game and sixth in defensive rating. This season, the Timberwolves are 12th in opponents’ points allowed and eighth in defensive rating.
Even with the defensive drop-off, the Timberwolves are coming off back-to-back Western Conference Finals trips. That shouldn’t be a throwaway point. The series will be closer than the DraftKings Sportsbook odds indicate.
But don’t expect this to be the case in the series opener. Denver has the best home court advantage in the league, and the Nuggets are 28-13 at home this year. The Nuggets’ offense will be too much for the Timberwolves to handle, especially in Denver.
