Baseball is faster than ever with the implementation of the pitch clock, but DraftKings Sportsbook also has a market for those who still can’t wait 2.5 hours for results. NRFI bets (No Run First Inning) are exactly what they sound like. They give the bettor the ability to wager specifically on the outcome of a game’s opening frame. Will either team score a run? Yes or no? It’s that simple.
With that in mind, here are my top three NRFI picks for Saturday’s full slate of MLB action.
Brewers at Marlins NRFI (-155)
The Brewers and Marlins are in Miami this weekend, and Saturday afternoon’s matchup features a pair of veteran righties on the hill. Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for the visiting Brew Crew, while the Marlins go with Sandy Alcantara.
In his career, Alcantara has a 74.6% NRFI rate, which is above league average, but still behind Woodruff’s 76.2% NRFI rate. This year, Alcantara has three scoreless first innings in his four starts, while Woodruff has given up a run in the first inning in two of his first three starts.
Alcantara has a 2.67 ERA overall and gave up only two runs in 17 1/3 innings in his two home starts. Woodruff has a 4.32 ERA, but he is coming off his best start of the year at home against the Nationals, in which he allowed just three hits in six innings.
From a team perspective, both teams are just barely below league average. The Marlins have 10 NRFI hits in their first 20 games, while the Brewers have hit nine NRFI props in their 19 games this season. With the two strong starting pitchers getting the start this afternoon, both have a good chance of getting through the first frame unscathed.
Orioles at Guardians NRFI (-140)
The weather could cause some issues with this matchup in Cleveland, but if the game is played, it should be a strong NRFI option as Dean Kremer takes on Gavin Williams.
Williams has been very strong in his four starts for the Guardians this season, allowing six runs in 22 2/3 innings and only allowing a first-inning run in one game. Last year, Williams did not allow a first-inning run in 23 of his 31 games for a 74.2% conversion rate.
The other side is higher risk with Dean Kremer, who did give up a run in the first inning of his only start this season. He gave up four runs (two earned) on six hits in five innings against Arizona, but the veteran did throw 19 scoreless first innings in his 29 starts last season.
The two teams in this matchup have each been among the strongest NRFI plays of the season. The Orioles are tied for the MLB lead with 15 NRFI in 20 games (75%) while the Guardians have 13 NRFI in 21 games (61.9%), which also ranks in the top five in the majors.
Blue Jays at Diamondbacks NRFI (+100)
The Blue Jays and D-backs started their series on Friday night, with Arizona getting a 6-3 win behind another strong start from Mike Soroka. No runs were scored in the first three innings of that contest, extending the D-backs’ streak of NRFI to three.
On Saturday night, Max Scherzer will take on Zac Gallen in a matchup of veteran righties. Gallen will take the mound first for the home team after going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his first four starts of the year. He has faced a series of tough opponents but has still converted three of four scoreless first innings. In his career, he has a 76% conversion rate, which is well above league average.
Scherzer was shelled by the Twins in his last start, giving up eight runs in just two innings, but he actually pitched a perfect first inning before the wheels came off. Scherzer has a 74% career rate of throwing clean first innings, although it has been more of a problem in the last few years. He’ll return to where his MLB career began in Arizona, and since he was traded, he has made six starts at Chase Field, going 5-0 with a 3.32 ERA.
Both these aces seem to be a little past their peak form, but I expect both to be able to navigate the first three outs of this game without giving up a run. The odds on this NRFI are short since neither of the two has dominated lately, but I trust them enough to love the value in this NRFI.
