The Phoenix Suns will host the Golden State Warriors tonight at 10 PM EST to determine who will be the eighth seed in the West.
The Suns are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 218.5 points.
Suns vs. Warriors prediction, preview
Phoenix spent most of this season trying to prove last year’s collapse was not their identity, and in many ways it did. The Suns went 45-37, grabbed the West’s seventh seed, and hired Jordan Ott after moving on from Mike Budenholzer. They got younger around Devin Booker with additions like Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin and Mark Williams. They turned a 117.7 DEFRTG defense that had been a mess a year ago into 112.9 this season, along with 115.4 OFFRTG and +1.5 NETRTG. The style is a little unusual for a Booker-led team; the Suns were only 29th in points in the paint per game and 28th in APG, but they were fifth in 3PM, fifth in 3PA, seventh in offensive rebound percentage, sixth in opponent PPG, seventh in opponent APG, seventh in opponent fastbreak PPG and 9th in opponent points in the paint. Ott’s version is all about floor balance, shotmaking and finishing possessions. The problem is that Tuesday’s 114-110 loss to Portland in the 7-vs-8 play-in was ugly. Phoenix blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead after getting mangled by a 17-5 closing run, and Ott admitted afterward that the Suns “really struggled to keep them out of the paint.” Jalen Green scored 35, Booker had 22, and Brooks added 20, but the late game execution was suspect.
The Warriors had no such late-game execution issues in Wednesday’s exhilarating victory over the Clippers, during which Al Horford and Steph Curry lit up the Clippers in a late-game comeback. Horford hit four triples in the final six minutes, and we got a glimpse of vintage Curry hitting ridiculous treys from unreasonable distances to close out the Clippers on their home court. Golden State’s season as a whole was not quite as glamorous. They were ravaged by injuries. They’ve missed Curry for extended periods but have managed to barely hang on without him, going 13-26 without him with a -5.6 NETRTG. The Warriors landed at a 115 OFFRTG, 115.6 DEFRTG, and -0.6 NETRTG. This is still the league’s most pass-happy offense, ranking first in assist percentage, fourth in assist ratio, second in made threes, and first in attempted threes. Unfortunately, they ranked 26th in points in the paint and 28th in fastbreak points, so the vast majority of their offense still comes from spacing and screening. If Curry can still play at the level he did against the Clippers, that’ll be a big problem for the Suns. This Warriors roster is still dangerous when Curry is liable to ice any game.
Suns vs. Warriors pick, best Bet
Best Bet: Golden State Warriors Moneyline (+120)
The Warriors beat the Suns in three out of their four meetings this season, and they looked solid against the Clippers, especially when Draymond Green is able to turn back the clock and clamp up. I’m liking the odds on the Warriors’ Moneyline and they should have a solid chance of taking down the Suns to kick off another playoff run. Even if the Suns are holding opponents to 35.2 3PA per game, which is the sixth mark in the league, I’m expecting the Dubs’ downtown barrage to overwhelm them through volume.
