We’ve got a six-game slate for Saturday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers, $8,500 — The strikeout rate and K-BB% are currently at career lows (21.4% and 15.5%). The K-BB% is below 20% for the first time. That said, the launch angle and barrel rate are also career lows. The 6.5 degree launch angle is the first time below 10 degrees. It’s only been four starts. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that all those numbers will normalize. Despite the outlier-ish numbers, Kirby has gone at least six innings in every start and produced double-digit FPTS in all, with two over 24 FPTS. Now he faces a Rangers team at home that is sixth in strikeout rate.
Value
Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $7,800 — The Lance McCullers Experience has been a vomit-inducing one so far, which is par for the course. After an impressive season debut in which he put up 32.8 FPTS, McCullers lasted only four innings in the next two starts and finished with single-digit FPTS. The strikeout rate is still robust at 27.9% and the 18% K-BB% is the highest since 2017. The BABIP is an elevated .351 while the strand rate is only 53.8%. The 2.97 FIP is much lower than the 5.87 ERA. Translation… McCullers has experienced some bad luck. In addition, the two blowups were on the road while the season opener was at home. The Astros are back at home for this one. St. Louis doesn’t strike out often and is middle-of-the-pack in both wOBA and wRC+, but the upside for McCullers is the best amongst the cheaper pitchers on this slate.
INFIELD
Stud
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $5,100 — Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has gotten off to a rough start with a 6.33 FIP, 5.4% K-BB% and three home runs allowed in 12.1 innings. Right-handed batters have crushed him with a slash of .424/.500/.848 and all three home runs. The ISO is down for Smith to start the season — .125 vs. career .210 — but both home runs have come off righties and the wRC+ is 129 against them this season.
Adam Frazier, Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres, $2,900 — Frazier is slashing .304/.467/.478 with a .174 ISO to start the season. I’m not buying it, as the BABIP is an elevated .429. That said, while regression is going to come, that doesn’t mean it happens right away. Against right-handed pitching, Frazier is 5-for-16 with three singles, a double and a home run. German Marquez has a 7.55 FIP and has served up five home runs already in 13 innings. Three of those were to lefties and they are slashing .414/.469/.759 against him.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $5,400 — I already wrote about Feltner’s struggles against righties this season. Pages has crushed right-handed pitching to start this campaign, slashing .431/.463/.706 with a .275 ISO. The wRC+ is 228 and four of the five home runs have come against righties.
Nick Castellanos, San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, $2,900 — Castellanos only has 42 plate appearances on the season. He’s faced left-handed pitching only seven times, collecting two hits with a walk while driving in two and striking out once. In his career against left-handed pitching, Castellanos has a 127 wRC+ and .214 ISO. Yusei Kikuchi has a career 4.7 FIP and 1.61 HR/9 against righties.
